20 years on: how has Amazon changed the world?

Along with Google, Facebook and Apple, Amazon has clearly been one of the great agents of change in our technology driven times. It is no exaggeration to say it has driven a revolution in how we shop, creating a global e-commerce market now worth $1.5 trillion.

While its core revenues are still from physical products, its ambition seemingly knows no bounds with expansion into media (e-books, video streaming, and downloads) and cloud computing (where its successful role in catalysing start-up growth for the likes of Netflix and AirBnb is less well known).

What should we expect going forwards? Relentless innovation on two fronts in particular.

First, further attempts to whittle down delivery times to satisfy consumers’ demand for instant gratification (‘anticipatory delivery’, Prime Now and the fabled drones). Secondly, new ways to make Amazon the default option for pretty much any discretionary spending (Firefly, the Dash button, Echo).

Amazon has famously focused on growing share over margin, with profits (and tax liabilities) kept close to zero. The worry is whether at some point in the future, when it’s obliterated the competition, Amazon chooses to use its market power to raise prices.

Should that happen we’ll all either be hoping for regulatory intervention, some competition from AliBaba, or wistfully reflecting on the demise of HMV et al all over again.

‘Users who bought this also bought that…’, product ratings, 2 hour delivery in London, price checking, showrooming. If Amazon hadn’t come along when it had the world would be a very different place.

So many things we take for granted today came about because of Amazon and as they’ve transitioned from books and CDs to almost every aspect of our lives (except fresh food), it’s hard to think of a world without them.

If Formula 1 is the breeding ground for the automotive industry, Amazon is its equivalent when it comes to shopping.

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But this may be about to change.

Some commentators have dubbed the world’s next digital stage as ‘post internet’, by which they mean a world where the internet happens in the background without us even being aware of it.

It sounds strange, but stuff does just happen in the cloud now in a way it never used to before and as the internet of things (IoT) comes on stream we may find that devices start shouldering the burden of the more mundane aspects of shopping without us even thinking about it.

It’s a cliche, but a fridge that orders milk or a replenishment of soap powder via a button attached to your machine is nearer than you think and this may usher in a tipping point where brands decide to bypass the retailers all together and ship direct, and if it’s too early for that then what about traditional businesses that already do distribution? Tesco, Ocado, Next?

All these businesses are in the business of delivery, does it really matter what product they sell, and do you really care if you don’t have to order it, it just happened automatically? I used to think there was no end to Amazon, now for the first time ever I think its future may not be quite so certain.

It’s been a long time since Amazon was a pure e-commerce company – their sweet-spot today is in being a user experience company.

They find ways to improve upon peoples’ lives, and then wrap a commercial business around that experience and deliver it at scale. Whether it’s helping busy people shop or offering consumers digital services and content, Amazon seems to be focused on improving our lives.

One way for the company to amplify and extend that ability is to further custom-tailor their offerings across consumers’ devices. While Amazon can leverage registration data today to deliver personalised experiences when their customers are logged in, I feel the company can expand upon this even further by leveraging probabilistic cross-device identity technology and data.

I can see a world where Amazon helps create compelling, personalised digital experiences across devices, even when a consumer is not logged in.

A colleague recently made a purchase on Amazon Prime and it was delivered to our reception in 19 minutes.

Brands are naturally going to want to benefit from the real consumer value that is being generated, and this is raising the bar for all retailers. Amazon continues to invest in logistics and evolve from merely a retailer into a platform and a marketplace.

These plays are difficult to counter and expensive to imitate for competitors. The pace with which Amazon continues to innovate and evolve makes them a hard target.

Platforms that provide consumers with real utility will always be attractive partners for brands who are looking to aggressively extend their own distribution.

Amazon has reshaped consumers’ expectation of the customer journey over the past 20 years, from selling books to selling almost anything under the sun.

Along the way they’ve progressed the use of new tech, whether it’s the recent move to delivering via drone or pioneered early content recommendation.

However, from my perspective, one of its simplest inventions has been its best. We’re approaching 16 years since Amazon filed their patent for 1-click, enabling customers to purchase products quickly and simply.

As consumers have shifted to buying through mobile – and nearly £10bn will be spent in 2015 by UK consumers while they commute – this kind of innovation is vital in minimising checkout abandonment and maximising the user experience.

With the arrival of instant payment methods on mobile and new functions online to ease the path to purchase, such as Google’s newly announced Buy Button, consumers will reward those who offer quick, seamless and secure payments experiences. It’s an area Amazon has led for well over a decade.

Amazon revolutionised what users have come to expect from online retailers – and by that I mean they made us all a lot lazier.

Jeff Bezos and co perfected the ability to tell us what we need before we even know we need it, and help us order it for next-day delivery without actually having to drag ourselves to the shops.

As an extension of this I can see a future where purchases are made literally in the blink of an eye, by capturing something you like using an Amazon-branded contact lens with a built-in camera.

Like the jeans that other guy is wearing? Just blink at them and your very own pair will be delivered an hour later. That’s how lazy I’d like to become, anyway.