Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts that there will be 56.1 million installed digital video recorders (DVR) around the world by the end of 2008.
The
Global DVR Forecasts report states that this represents 5% of TV households and 18% of digital TV homes. The forecasts claim 20 million added DVR homes in 2008, and 25 million more in 2009.
Informa Telecoms and Media predicts 208 million DVR households by 2013. The top five countries will account for two-thirds of this total.
North America will contribute three-quarters of the 2008 total, down from 81% in 2007. Its share will continue to fall, reaching 48% by 2013. However, its 99.4 million DVR homes by 2013 will be more than double the 2008 figure.
Research from Leichtman Research Group in September found that 27% of TV households in the US have at least one DVR, and 30% of those households have more than one DVR (see DVRs Now In One Quarter Of US Households).
Magna Global, meanwhile, predicted that US DVR subscriber households would reach 42.7 million (36% of TV households) by the end of 2012 (see US DVR Subscriber Households To Reach 42.7m).
Informa predicts that Western Europe will record impressive growth, up from 8.6 million at end-2008 to 48.2 million in 2013. The UK will remain the top nation in the region, with 13.2 million DVR homes by 2013. It will be followed by France (7.9 million), Italy (6.8 million) and Germany (6.3 million).
Growth in the Asia Pacific region will be even more impressive than Western Europe, rising from 3.1 million at end-2008 to 45.1 million in 2013. It is likely to overtake Western Europe in 2014.
By 2013, Japan will have 13.8 million DVR homes – ranking it second in the world.
Despite a fast-growing installed base, DVR penetration is only expected to reach 5% of TV households by end-2008, meaning that it still has some way to go to reach mass market adoption. It is already at this point in North America, with a third of homes having a DVR.
Global penetration is forecast to rise to 17% by 2013, with North America reaching three-quarters of TV households. Western Europe will remain second-placed, though it will be far behind at 28%.
However, penetration will vary considerably within Western Europe from highs of 60% in Ireland and 50% in the UK to lows of 16% in Germany and 20% in Austria.
By 2013, cable will be the largest DVR platform by a long way, bringing in nearly half the 208 million total. DTH will generate a respectable 62.3 million – or 30% of the total. DTT (23.6 million) and IPTV (19.7 million) will experience considerable growth but will still be someway behind the other platforms.
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