Brace yourselves for Many Years of “Mobisodes”
The ASI European TV Symposium, which started in Warsaw yesterday, saw one of the most convincing presentations yet of the future of mobile television. Delivered by consultant Dermot Nolan of TBS, his analysis of the Telco / TV markets was compelling.
Global Telcos seeking new markets having achieved saturation coverage, and with appropraitely global economies of scale and scope need TV on the mobile as the next “big play.” Technologies are improving fast – better file compression, cleverer phones (the Nokia N92 will act like a PVR apparently).
Comparing mobile coverage – 60m handsets in the UK versus 25m TV households – and the fresh oppportunities for advertisers to reach elusive male and young adult audiences via mobile programming, Nolan was in no doubt that this was where the future lay. Publicis CEO, Maurice Levy apparently thinks along the same lines after his recent assertion that the mobile phone is “the biggest medium.”
As to the business models and content, Nolan sees subscription-based models leading the way – probably at around five pounds per month, with sports, news and business bulletins and re-packaged mobile content – “mobisodes” – leading the way. Rights content is of course an issue, and the free to air broadcasters would want to add their content at no cost in some cases (particularly the BBC), but with advertising around it for others. Most contents rights holders are holding back just now, but see the huge opportunities ahead – and a taster was supplied when new i-tunes video site saw massive downloads within days of making content from Lost and Desparate Housewives available.
Mobile phone companies experience churn of about 25% (whereas Sky’s churn is around 10%), so the mobile industry also sees a chance to lower churn with more compelling contract deals; and Sky would see mobile as another add-on subscription – like Sky+, multiroom and HDTV. Both are all about raising ARPU as far as it will go.
Nolan predicted likely set up costs in the UK of £500m – £1bn for a mobile network, using DVB-H, but ifsubscription deals were taken up by around 25% of the market, the operators would “be laughing all the way to the bank.”