Leading media analysts ABN Amro have downgraded their global ad forecasts following a “weaker than expected start to 2001”. Estimates for global advertising growth, which had previously stood at 3.4%, have now been reduced to just 1.3%.
Amro cites weaknesses in the telecoms and technology markets, shifts in media mix by FMCG companies and the current dichotomy between ad growth and GDP as indicators that this may not just be a bad cycle we are witnessing. However they also echo many other analysts’ and media companies’ ‘defence’ that ad growth in 2000 rose to inflated and unrealistic highs fuelled by the dot com boom, the Olympics, Euro 2000 and the US presidential elections.
Looking to the future, Amro believes that a growth rate of 6.4% is possible, although optimistic, and anticipate a “slow recovery” is more likely with base growth rate estimates for 2002 at 4.5%
In a recent survey by Extel, published on Monday, ABN Amro was voted the best ‘sell side’ research team for the media and photography sector.
