ITV advertising revenues are expected to be flat in the first half of the year, according to predictions from Lehman Brothers analysts. These forecasts concur with the group’s trading updates, released at the respective AGMs in March (see Carlton Sees Challenging H1 For ITV Ad Revenues).
Previewing Carlton and Granada’s H1 financial results, the broker says that the full financial year (to September) is now expected to show a 2% decline, down from previous forecasts of 0% growth.
Lehman says that second half advertising levels now look ‘ropey’, after a mixed H1, with Q3 shaping up to be significantly down on last year. The fourth quarter also remains uncertain and would have to grow by 10% to return the full year to the previous estimate of 0% growth. If Q4 falls by 5%, then FY2003 figures fall to around -3.5%.
Financial impact This downgrade in advertising outlook has shaved 1% of overall revenues estimates for Granada and Carlton, whilst profits estimates are reduced by 10% and 18% respectively.
Granada’s earnings are expected to fall by 7.3% to £69.5 million, whilst Carlton’s rise by 6% to £34.5 million.
