Growth could be as high as 16.8% for commercial radio this year, bringing the medium’s share of total display advertising revenue to around 5.7%, but could slow down again in 2001, according to a summary of industry forecasts put together by the Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB). The growth prediction of 16.8% came from the Advertising Association (AA). Zenith Media has upgraded its forecast for commercial radio to 14.4% in 2000 and 15.0% in 2001, but while Optimedia predicts 9.9% growth for this year, it is anticipating a slowdown next year to 3.3%
Overall a slowdown is predicted for 2001, from an average of 11.2% growth this year to an average of 9.0% next year. However, over the next decade the AA expects commercial radio to outperform the industry average. The AA expects downturns and booms to be on the horizon, one of which is predicted by Optimedia to be the new media boom, which it believes will overtake commercial radio in growth by 2003. Outdoor will also feel the benefit of the dotcom boom, predicts the AA, while 2001 is expected to bring increases in revenue for other media down to around 4% as growth slows down. Zenith Media, meanwhile, suggests that commercial radio will not be able to hold on to current and predicted growth rates if its audience size remains constant. CIA MediaLab’s forecast maintains that commercial radio is growing at twice the rate of display, and expects the share of revenue attained for this year to reach 6.2%. The AA expects this figure to be 5.9%, comparing favourably with 1999’s 5.5% share.
Among other media, TV is predicted to grow its share of the market at the expense of press, as multi-channel TV grows and press circulation’s decline.
