eMarketer’s
Online Holiday Shopping 2001 report, drawn from a variety of sources and forecast in line with retail projections against the quarterly assessments from the US Department of Commerce, also predicts that 14.1 million more people will buy online this year than did so in 2000.
| Comparative Estimates: Consumers planning to spend the same or more online, Christmas 2001 v 2000 |
| |
| Harris Interactive |
76% |
| Advertising.com |
75% |
| BIGresearch/Deloitte & Touche |
70% |
| Meridien |
63% |
| Wirthlin Worldwide |
61% |
| Vividence Corporation |
56% |
| Source: eMarketer, various as noted, 2001 |
“By recognising the Department of Commerce as the definitive measure of historical online sales, we will be holding ourselves – and our Q4 projection – accountable,” said eMarketer CEO Geoff Ramsey. “We, and everyone else, will know how well we did several months from now.”
In Q4 2001, 58.7 million US residents are expected to buy online, spending an average of $182.25. 4.9 million people will buy online for the first time this year and, apparently without regret, eMarketer reports that “many will shop online instead of travelling to deliver gifts to loved ones”.
However, the deteriorating economy will take its toll on all shopping this Christmas: “The economic malaise will constrain online and overall retail spending this year,” continued Ramsey. “Unlike previous years where online spending rode the roller coaster straight up, regardless of overall retail activity, this year e-commerce will be more closely aligned with general patterns of consumer spending.”
In 2000, online Q4 spending rose by 71% compared to 1999, a much greater growth rate than was seen in traditional retailing. Whilst Christmas 2001 will undoubtedly be affected by the economic downturn, online shopping is still expected to beat the 2.2% rise in overall US retail sales predicted by the National Retail Federation.
The report was published on 12th November 2001 and aggregates research data and analysis from sources including: The Direct Marketing Association, Jupiter Media Metrix, Nielsen//NetRatings, Forrester Research, GartnerG2, Greenfield Online and Bizrate.com.
