INSIGHTanalysis: UK Advertising Growth Forecasts
A consensus of recent UK advertising forecasts compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT puts 2003 growth at 3.6%, rising to 3.9% for 2004. However, the 2003 predictions range from a conservative 1.0% from Merrill Lynch – produced very recently – to Universal McCann’s comparatively exuberant 5.9% posted in December (see Universal McCann Expert Upbeat On Ad Prospects).
The forecasts put UK growth slightly above total European growth, which is expected to be around 2.0% this year and around 4.0% in 2004. The economic situation in Europe is currently pretty weak and the region is holding back stronger global growth, which is being led by the US (see Merrill Lynch Lowers Global Advertising Forecast).
Merrill Lynch analysts acknowledge that their European forecasts are lower than most other groups’ predictions, but believe that other figures will ultimately have to come down to Merrill Lynch levels.
Merrill’s figures are the most recently-compiled and the broker claims that advertiser sentiment has faded since Q4 2002, when the majority of the other forecasts shown here were produced.
| UK Advertising Growth Forecasts | ||
| 2003 | 2004 | |
| Merrill Lynch | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| WARC | 5.4 | – |
| Zenith Optimedia | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| Universal McCann | 5.9 | – |
| OMD UK | 3.4 | 5.0 |
| Initiative Media | 4.6 | – |
| ABN AMRO | 3.0 | – |
| Average | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| Source: As above, compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT | ||
