Despite the prospect of war and fears of a double-dip recession, there was a general mood of optimism at the AAAA Media Conference in New Orleans last week.
Of late, industry observers have been divided over the state of the advertising business. Jack Myers has insisted that the US market is experiencing ‘sustained upward momentum’ (see
US Ad Economy In Good Health, Insists Myers) but others are more circumspect and Merrill Lynch has downgraded its 2003 ad growth forecast from 4.0% to 3.7% (see
Merrill Lynch Lowers Global Advertising Forecast).
Nonetheless, there is no doubt that television upfronts have inspired confidence throughout the business with some planners predicting that ad sales in this sector will reach $9 billion this year.
War is likely to have a detrimental effect on all areas of the market but AdAge.com reports that contingency plans are in place and advertisers and agencies appear to be better prepared to ride out a conflict than they would have been a year ago.
The keynote speech at last week’s conference was given by O. Burtch Drake, president and CEO of the AAAA, who was bullish about the short-term future of the media industry. “There is a general feeling among many in our business that things are improving, and if not dramatically in 2003 then certainly in 2004,” he told delegates.
Drake also railed against critics who have accused ad agencies of living in the past and failing to drive change. “The agency business did not become an $18 billion business by failing to provide marketers with bona fide strategic counsel and effective marketing-communications solutions,” he insisted.
The growth of ad-skipping devices such as TiVo and the growing popularity of new ad methods have raised questions over the future of traditional advertising. However, Drake remains unconvinced about the true extent of the threat.
“As I see it, when all is said and done, my crystal ball says, ‘Stay the course, don’t despair,’ because paid media advertising will be with us for a long, long time and it will continue to be effective for a long, long time,” he concluded.
