Myers Trims 2003 US Ad Forecasts And Raises 2004

New figures in the Jack Myers Report put 2004 expenditure up 5.0% at $171.9 billion; the previous forecast was for growth of 4.6%. The cuts in the 2003 figures are the result of the war in Iraq. The conflict caused marketers to be reluctant to make Q2 commitments, according to Myers.

“My projections are the most bullish among the major analysts and forecasters. However, these forecasts are based on primary intelligence gathered from marketers, media sales executives and media buyers,” says Myers. He believes that key categories such as automotive, retail and entertainment will show growth in 2003 and 2004, whereas other commentators have remained less optimistic.

Myers says that all the economic indicators reviewed point to a “sustained positive climate” for advertising and media in 2004. “Even if the general economic climate remains sluggish, ad spending will not be significantly impacted,” he claims.

US Advertising Spend, Share And Growth Forecasts, By Medium
ÂÂ	ÂÂ	ÂÂ	ÂÂ	ÂÂ	ÂÂ	ÂÂ
ÂÂ	2003			2004
Media	% Growth	$ (million)	% Share	% Growth	$ (million)	% Share
Newspapers	1.0	44,296	26.8	2.0	45,181	26.0
Broadcast networks	4.0	16,624	10.0	5.6	17,555	10.1
Local & national spot TV	1.2	21,234	12.8	9.8	23,315	13.4
Broadcast syndication	3.8	2,796	1.7	4.5	2,921	1.7
Radio	2.0	19,613	11.8	4.0	20,397	11.7
Yellow pages	1.0	14,117	8.5	0.0	14,117	8.1
Magazines	4.0	17,114	10.3	4.5	17,885	10.3
Network cable TV	8.0	13,500	8.2	9.6	14,796	8.5
Local/regional cable TV	15.0	4,715	2.8	18.0	5,564	3.2
Online traditional adv.	16.0	4,060	2.5	20.0	4,872	2.8
Online non-trad. marketing	-25.0	2,250	1.4	-15.0	1,913	1.1
Outdoor	1.0	5,238	3.2	2.0	5,343	3.1
Total	2.5	165,557	100.0	5.0	173,859	100.0
Total exc. Online non-trad. marketing	3.1	163,307	100.0	5.3	171,946	100.0
Source: Jack Myers Report, May 2003