INSIGHTanalysis: US Ecommerce Estimates & Forecasts
Recent forecasts show that more than $50 billion will be spent on online purchases in the US this year and there are signs that internet retailers are prospering at the expense of their offline rivals.
The survey of 85 US metro markets suggests that 22.5% of households are regular online shoppers, adding weight to the argument that internet stores are poised to attract big bucks.
“The dot com bust, corporate scandals and a sluggish economy seems to have had no impact on internet shopping,” said Bob Jordan, co-chairman of International Demographics which produces The Media Audit.
According to the Department of Commerce, US online retail sales increased by almost 27% to $45.5 million in 2002 while total sales were up by little more than 3%. Internet purchases raised $14.3 million in revenues in the key fourth quarter, equivalent to 1.6% of all retail sales.
| Estimated Quarterly US Retail Sales* | ||||||
| Total | Ecommerce | |||||
| Year | Period | Sales ($bn) | YoY Growth (%) | Sales ($bn) | YoY Growth (%) | As % Of Total Sales |
| 2000 | Q1 | 711.60 | 11.2 | 5.81 | NA | 0.8 |
| Q2 | 771.69 | 7.4 | 6.35 | NA | 0.8 | |
| Q3 | 765.54 | 5.5 | 7.27 | NA | 0.9 | |
| Q4 | 810.31 | 3.3 | 9.46 | NA | 1.2 | |
| Full Year | 3059.14 | NA | 28.89 | NA | 0.9 | |
| 2001 | Q1 | 724.22 | 1.8 | 8.26 | 42.2 | 1.1 |
| Q2 | 805.25 | 4.3 | 8.25 | 29.9 | 1.0 | |
| Q3 | 782.09 | 2.2 | 8.24 | 13.3 | 1.1 | |
| Q4 | 856.29 | 5.7 | 11.18 | 18.2 | 1.3 | |
| Full Year | 3167.85 | 3.6 | 35.93 | 24.4 | 1.1 | |
| 2002 | Q1 | 743.81 | 2.7 | 9.88 | 19.7 | 1.3 |
| Q2 | 825.24 | 2.5 | 10.27 | 24.5 | 1.2 | |
| Q3 | 827.46 | 5.8 | 11.06 | 34.3 | 1.3 | |
| Q4 | 869.59 | 1.6 | 14.33 | 28.2 | 1.6 | |
| Full Year | 3266.10 | 3.1 | 45.54 | 26.7 | 1.4 | |
| * excluding food services | ||||||
| Source: US Department of Commerce, February 2003 | ||||||
Independent studies The US government’s statistics are backed up by new research from Shop.org and Forrester Research which found that sales revenues went up by 48% to $76 billion last year. Unlike other surveys, this study of 130 retailers took into account spending on travel, which accounts for about a third of ecommerce B2C sales.
Figures from other research groups (which do not include travel) show encouraging growth in the online retail sector and there is no evidence of an imminent slowdown.
| US Online Retail Sales Estimates ($ billion) | ||||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | |
| Bizrate.com, Jan 2003 | – | 35.87 | 47.98 | – | – | – |
| eMarketer, Apr 2003 | 28.15 | 34.38 | 45.54 | 58.23 | 72.60 | 88.10 |
| Jupiter Research, Feb 2003 | 24.10 | 31.00 | 40.40 | 51.70 | 63.90 | 77.10 |
| Source: eMarketer, April 2003; various, as noted, 2003 | ||||||