TNS/CMR Upgrades US 2003 Ad Growth To 4.3%
US advertising spend is forecast to grow by 4.3% this year to reach $124.7 billion, according to a new set of figures from TNS Media Intelligence/CMR.
“The first quarter for this year came in very strong at 4.9% with spending totaling $28.4 billion [see US Adspend Grows 5% In First Quarter, Says CMR] – this robust spending is likely a precursor for the rest of the year,” says Steven Fredericks, president and CEO of TNS Media Intelligence/CMR.
“Even without the peaks found in years where Olympic spending and presidential election activity buoy overall spending, 2003 is expected to continue the sustained growth we’ve tracked since the third quarter of 2002,” he adds.
The first half of 2003 is predicted to show growth of 4.7%, with H2 set to rise by 4.0%. US expenditure has benefitted from a strong upfront market, a continued boom in Hispanic media, the active political environment and a steady growth in new brand spending, according to CMR.
| US Advertising Quarterly Growth Forecasts | |
| Year On Year Growth | |
| Q1A | 4.9% |
| Q2 | 4.4% |
| H1 2003 | 4.7% |
| Q3 | 2.5% |
| Q4 | 5.2% |
| H2 2003 | 4.0% |
| FY 2003 | 4.3% |
| Source: TNS Media Intelligence/CMR, June 2003 | |
A consensus of recent US advertising forecasts is provided for context below. Further data can be found in the Forecasts Central section of MediaTelINSIGHT by clicking the Database button on the left.
| LATEST US ADVERTISING GROWTH FORECASTS | |||
| ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ |
| ÂÂ | Growth (%) | ||
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | |
| Merrill Lynch (05/03) | 3.1 | 5.9 | – |
| Universal McCann (06/03) | 4.6 | 6.5 | – |
| eMarketer (12/02) | 4.7 | – | – |
| Global Insight (11/02) | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Myers Group (05/03) | 3.1 | 5.3 | – |
| ZenithOptimedia (04/03) | 2.2 | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| CMR (06/03) | 4.3 | – | – |
| Initiative (01/03) | 3.5 | – | – |
| Average | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.4 |
| Source: As above/compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT | |||