UK Television Platform Penetration Forecasts
Digital television will be received by more than half of all UK TV homes by the end of this year, with penetration set to rise to more than 82% by 2008, according to a consensus of recent market forecasts.
The groups all forecast broadly the same patterns, although there are discrepancies between predicted growth rates. Merrill Lynch, for example, is more bullish on pay-TV penetration growth than it is on the rise of free-to-air platform Freeview. ZenithOptimedia’s figures display pretty much the reverse opinion.
By 2007, Merrill expects pay-TV to reach 52.1% of TV homes, whilst ZenithOptimedia predicts just 43.0%. Freeview is expected to hit 36.8% penetration by this time according to ZenithOptimedia, whilst Merrill analysts forecast just 20.3%.
There is more agreement when it comes to the decline of analogue television though, with the consensus showing a rapid decline from 55.8% last year to just 17.4% by 2008.
| Multichannel TV Penetration Trends And Forecasts (Share Of TV Households*) | ||||||||||||||
| 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Pay-TV | ||||||||||||||
| Morgan Stanley | – | – | – | – | 31.7 | 35.1 | 37.9 | 41.1 | 44.1 | 47.0 | 49.8 | 50.9 | 51.7 | 52.4 |
| Lehman Brothers | – | – | 31.6 | 39.0 | 42.7 | 38.9 | 39.9 | 41.9 | 44.8 | – | 49.4 | – | – | – |
| Merrill Lynch | – | – | – | – | – | 39.0 | 41.2 | 42.8 | 46.0 | 49.2 | 52.1 | 54.7 | – | – |
| ZenithOptimedia | 25.0 | 26.7 | 32.2 | 39.1 | 42.2 | 39.1 | 39.7 | 39.9 | 40.6 | 41.8 | 43.0 | – | – | – |
| Average | 25.0 | 26.7 | 31.9 | 39.1 | 38.9 | 38.0 | 39.7 | 41.4 | 43.9 | 46.0 | 48.6 | 52.8 | 51.7 | 52.4 |
| Free-to-air TV (Freeview) | ||||||||||||||
| Morgan Stanley | – | – | – | – | 7.8 | 8.5 | 15.1 | 21.1 | 26.0 | 30.3 | 33.8 | 36.8 | 39.3 | 41.2 |
| Lehman Brothers | – | – | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 8.4 | 14.5 | 22.1 | – | 30.3 | – | – | – |
| Merrill Lynch | – | – | – | – | – | 5.3 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 14.8 | 17.7 | 20.3 | 23.0 | – | – |
| ZenithOptimedia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 14.6 | 19.7 | 26.9 | 36.8 | – | – | – |
| Average | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 15.5 | 20.7 | 25.0 | 30.3 | 29.9 | 39.3 | 41.2 |
| Analogue TV | ||||||||||||||
| Morgan Stanley** | – | – | – | – | 60.5 | 56.4 | 47.0 | 37.8 | 29.9 | 22.7 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 |
| Lehman Brothers | – | – | 68.4 | 60.9 | 56.7 | 56.5 | 51.7 | 43.6 | 33.1 | – | 20.2 | – | – | – |
| Merrill Lynch | – | – | – | – | – | 55.7 | 49.9 | 45.5 | 39.2 | 33.1 | 27.6 | 22.4 | – | – |
| ZenithOptimedia | 75.0 | 73.3 | 67.8 | 60.7 | 57.2 | 54.7 | 50.0 | 45.5 | 39.8 | 31.3 | 20.2 | – | – | – |
| Average | 75.0 | 73.3 | 68.1 | 60.8 | 58.1 | 55.8 | 49.7 | 43.1 | 35.5 | 29.0 | 21.1 | 17.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 |
| * Morgan Stanley calculates as percentage of all households | ||||||||||||||
| ** Calculated as all households minus pay-TV and FTA | ||||||||||||||
| Source: As above, Competition Commission’s March-August 2003 ITV merger inquiry, MediaTelINSIGHT | ||||||||||||||
