US radio advertising revenue rose by 4% year on year during September, boosted by a strong national expenditure, according to the latest figures from the Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB).
National spend jumped by 13% during the month, whilst local was up by just 2%. Across the whole of the third quarter, total revenues were up by 2%, with national up 10% and local revenues remaining flat year on year.
In the year-to-date, the first nine months of 2003 grew 2% in total combined local and national sales, with national up 8% and local up 1%.
| US September Radio Advertising Revenue Growth And Index Figures |
| |
|
|
|
| September 2003 vs September 2002 |
Calendar Year To Date |
| |
|
|
|
| Local Revenue |
 |
Local Revenue |
|
| All Markets |
2% |
All Markets |
1% |
| Local Sales Index |
132.4 |
Local Sales Index |
135.7 |
| |
|
|
|
| National Revenue |
 |
National Revenue |
 |
| All Markets |
13% |
All Markets |
8% |
| National Sales Index |
143.7 |
National Sales Index |
144.1 |
| |
|
|
|
| Local & National Revenue |
 |
Local & National Revenue |
 |
| All Markets |
4% |
All Markets |
2% |
| Combined Sales Index |
134.8 |
Combined Sales Index |
136.9 |
| Source: US RAB, November 2003 |
Longer-term index To put the intermediate and long-term growth of the US radio industry into perspective, the RAB compares figures to sales in a base year – 1998 – which is indexed to 100.
The combined total sales index for September was 134.8. The national index for the month was 143.7 and the local index was 132.4. In the year-to-date perspective, the combined total index was 136.9, the national index was 144.1 and the local was 135.7.
“While the results for September are encouraging, consumer confidence at the local level is not progressing at the same pace that economic indicators are improving. Even though local improvement traditionally follows national trends in a upturn, the momentum for this recovery is just in its first stages,” according to Gary Fries, chief executive officer of the RAB.
Merrill Lynch says that the September figures benefitted from easy comparables, despite the seemingly robust growth of 17% in September 2002. This is because many advertisers withheld their spend during the month whilst 9/11 memorial services were taking place.
The broker has adjusted its radio industry forecasts slightly in the light of recent figures. November has been reduced from no growth to a decline of 1%, whilst the flat estimate for October and the December forecast of 2% growth have each been maintained. This gives no growth for the whole of Q4.
Merrill’s full-year spot radio growth forecasts are for 1.9% in 2003 and 8.1% in 2004.
