Major media advertising pacings in the US are looking fairly weak for the fourth quarter, although the outlook for 2004 is still positive, according to Merrill Lynch.
The broker says that radio and television are both weak in Q4 and the Q1 2004 scatter market pricing is roughly flat compared to upfront prices. Newspaper revenues picked up in October (see
US Newspaper Advertising Rises 1.5% In Q3), although this was expected and comparisons become more difficult again in December. In magazines, pages were down in Q4 and the outlook for Q1 2004 is sluggish, say analysts.
Despite these fairly soft figures, the broker does not conclude that this is a halt in the advertising recovery, but rather that the trends indicate that some clients are holding back spend in order to meet their own Q4 targets.
“We still get the strong sense that advertisers are intent on growing their top line in 2004 and that they will need to invest in marketing to achieve their goals,” says principal media analyst Lauren Rich Fine.
Recent figures from Nielsen Monitor-Plus put total US growth during Q3 at 5.7%, with only spot radio and outdoor showing year on year declines (see US Adspend Continues To Grow, Says Nielsen).
