UK To Lead European Ad Growth, Says Universal McCann
UK advertising will grow by 3.0% this year, before rising to 5.5% in 2004, according to the latest set of forecasts from Universal McCann‘s Robert Coen. This is a little stronger than the growth figures predicted for most other major European advertising markets.
Most key industrialised countries outside the US are just beginning to see some signs of improvement in their advertising outlook, according to the report. “The disappointments over the recent sluggish growth have dampened many future outlooks, but most expect that advertising growth will be better in 2004,” says Coen.
Within this, the UK looks set to lead the way, particularly next year, when expenditure will be boosted by the European Championships football competition.
| Advertising Forecasts For Key Industrialised Countries | |||
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
| Japan | -6.0 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Germany | -5.0 | -2.0 | 2.5 |
| United Kingdom | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.5 |
| France | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Italy | -2.5 | -1.0 | 2.5 |
| Spain | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| Canada | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.5 |
| Mexico | 7.4 | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| Brazil | 3.4 | 5.0 | 9.0 |
| Netherlands | -2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Source: Universal McCann, December 2003 | |||
Consensus forecasts A comparisons of all the most recent UK advertising growth forcecasts is shown below for reference; more figures are available here. The consensus is that there will be 1.9% growth this year, followed by 4.5% in 2004 and 4.4% in 2005.
| LATEST UK ADVERTISING GROWTH FORECASTS | |||
| ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | |
| ÂÂ | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| Advertising Association* (09/03) | 0.5 | 6.3 | – |
| Interdeco/Ad Barometer (10/03) | 1.1 | 3.3 | – |
| Mediaedge:cia (10/03) | 3.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| Merrill Lynch* (09/03) | 1.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| Universal McCann (12/03) | 3.0 | 5.5 | – |
| Zenith Optimedia (12/03) | 1.1 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| Average | 1.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| * Display revenue only | |||
| Source: As above/compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT | |||