Global Cinema Recovery Expected In 2004

According to the 7th edition of the Global Film: Exhibition & Distribution report, the number of new blockbusters has been a major driver in the increased number of movie-goers this year but the up-turn isn’t expected to continue as multiplex expansion will have reached saturation in most developed markets by 2010.

Informa says, all continents, except for Asia, are expected to see a slight rise in cinema admissions up until 2010, with many countries, especially China, expected to turn away from traditional movie theatres as television becomes more important. Asia Pacific’s share of cinema regulars is expected to fall to 58% of the population by the end of the decade, compared to 72% in 1995.

Admissions By Continent (million)
	1995	2003	2004	2010
Asia Pacific	6,295	5,020	5,123	5,182
Europe	826	1,108	1,155	1,279
Latin America	165	310	335	447
Middle East/Africa	83	111	116	128
North America	1,364	1,700	1,773	1,895
Total	8,732	8,248	8,502	8,931
Source: Informa Media Group, September 2004

Although the number of new screens opening is expected to rise by only 3.8% over the next six years, its doesn’t appear to be all doom and gloom for the future of cinemas, as global box office revenues are expected to double to $25.6 billion by 2010.

However, the 12% growth in box office revenue is expected because multiplexes charge more for tickets than traditional cinemas, however cheaper admission prices in Asia Pacific means that revenue growth slowed towards the end of the 1990’s when compared to other continents.

Until 2010, the US is expected to be the dominate continent in terms of box office revenue, with takings this year predicted to reach 44% of the total market, falling by only one percentage point by the end of the decade.