During September, a number of advertising forecasts for 2004 and 2005 were revised as solid recovery in Europe and the US kicked in.
Carat, the world’s largest independent media agency network, grew its 2004 forecast from 5.3% to 5.7%, while 2005 was increased from 4.4% to 5.0%.
The UK’s Advertising Association (AA) also revisited previous predictions but this time they were revised slightly downwards, perhaps because previous forecasts were too optimistic, coupled with weakening consumer confidence which could suggest a slow down in economic activity.
As previously predicted, the internet looks set to remain as the fastest growing medium over the next few years with the AA predicting a rise of over 30% by 2005, with this sentiment echoed by WPP’s insight arm, Millward Brown, who said that online media budgets are expected to increase by a further 60% in 2005, compared to 2004.
Digital Switchover
During September, further doubts were added to the possibility of Europe and the US being ready for the switch to digital television by the end of the decade. Many more organisations voiced their opinions about the lack of plans in place to make the analogue switch-off a reality.
Informa Media Group said: “No European country will have complete digital conversion by 2010 as digital penetration is only expected to reach 46% by this date.”
Despite a number of European governments working towards plans to ensure the analogue signal is switched-off in the next six years, there is still expected to be a significant shortfall in the number of homes receiving television via a digital signal, said Informa.
In the US, the transition to digital is causing as many concerns, with the Digital Transition Coalition, which was formed by a number of companies and public interested groups who were frustrated by the slow progress of the digital switch-over said, tens of millions of Americans are still unable to receive a single local network station in digital mode. In total, around 39 million households are not receiving a complete digital network service.
However, Ofcom, the UK government’s media regulator, issued its latest Digital Television Update report that will give a much needed confidence boost to those who are sceptical of the government’s plans. The report showed that currently the number of UK households with access to digital television increased to 55% in the second quarter of this year, up from 53% in the previous quarter.
Ofcom also issued a blue print during the month, outlining the steps that have to be taken to ensure that UK broadcasters are ready for the switch-over, which could happen as early as 2007.
