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Global Advertising Recovery Confirmed

Global Advertising Recovery Confirmed

Confirmation that the worldwide advertising market is in recovery has come from the latest Ad Barometer report from Interdeco, although the research group cautions that there will be ‘no going back to the 90s frenzy’.

According to the report, 2004 will finish up with a growth of 5.3%, a figure that has been revised up from Interdeco’s March forecast of 4.0%.

This year has delivered a better than expected performance, thanks to a stronger than expected global economic recovery and the much anticipated quadrennial events of the Olympics, Euro 2004 and the US presidential elections that have generally met expectations.

Following two or three gloomy years in the advertising industry, all markets and all media have recovered, with worldwide advertising expenditure largely back to the level of 2000 (except in Japan and some continental European countries).

In addition, major advertising categories such as telecoms, finance and motors, have experienced recovery following the 2000 crisis and other categories such as food and FMCG have benefited from increased levels of advertising expenditure.

Looking forward, Interdeco predicts that 2005 will experience continued growth, although at a slower rate compared to 2004. Adspend is forecast to be up by 3.2% next year, with overall worldwide economic growth decelerating.

Interdeco’s global predictions are more conservative than other advertising forecasters, with ZenithOptimedia being the most positive for 2004 and Universal McCann the most optimistic for 2005.

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ADVERTISING FORECASTS 
                 
  US  Europe  Asia-Pacific  Global 
  2004  2005  2004  2005  2004  2005  2004  2005 
Merrill Lynch (12/04) 6.7 4.8 3.5 4.7 5.7 4.5
Aegis (09/04) 5.8 4.8 4.4 4.4 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.0
Universal McCann (12/04) 7.4 6.4 6.4 6.1
ZenithOptimedia (12/04) 5.5 4.2 5.4 4.5 8.5 6.0 6.9 5.0
Initiative Media (02/04) 4.9 3.6 8.8 5.8
Interdeco/Ad Barometer (11/04) 6.5 3.5 4.0 3.4 5.3 3.2
Average  6.2  4.7  4.2  4.1  7.1  5.9  6.0  4.8 
Source: As above, compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT 

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