UK advertising expenditure is expected to rise by 4.2% in 2005, with the internet the fastest growing medium, according to revised predictions made by the Advertising Association (AA) in their Advertising Forecast.
All media is forecast to increase over the next year, with the internet leading the way; predicted to rise by an impressive 38.1%.
Other media expected to do well in 2005 are outdoor advertising, forecast to increase by 6.2%; cinema adspend, which is forecast to rise by 4.8% and radio advertising expenditure, which could rise by as much as 4.5%.
The AA’s 2005 prediction is slightly more conservative than that of Carat, who yesterday estimated that UK advertising expediture is set to grow by 4.6% in 2005(see European Growth Fuels 2004 Global Adspend).
The AA justifies its forecast with data for the first three quarters of 2004, pointing to an annual increase of 5.0% and predicting that growth will continue in 2005, albeit at the slightly slower pace of 4.2% year on year.
According to figures, based on a consensus of recent forecasts compiled by MediaTel Insight 2005 adspend is predicted to increase by 4.5%. While this figure is lower than expected for 2004, the outlook for the forthcoming year remains solid.
| 2005 UK Advertising Forecasts By Medium |
|
| Medium |
2005 on 2004 % Change (Constant Prices) |
| National newspapers |
2.7 |
| Regional newspapers |
2.9 |
| Consumer magazines |
2.2 |
| Business magazines |
1.8 |
| Total press |
2.6 |
| – of which display |
2.4 |
| – of which classified |
2.9 |
| Television |
2.5 |
| Radio |
4.5 |
| Outdoor |
6.2 |
| Cinema |
4.8 |
| Internet |
38.1 |
| Direct Mail |
2.9 |
| |
|
| Total including internet |
4.2 |
| Total excluding internet |
2.9 |
| |
|
| Source: Advertising Association, January 2005 |
|
| LATEST UK ADVERTISING GROWTH FORECASTS |
| |
|
|
|
| |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
| Advertising Association (01/05) |
2.5 |
4.8 |
4.2 |
| Interdeco/Ad Barometer (11/04) |
1.1 |
5.0 |
4.1 |
| Zenith Optimedia (12/04) |
2.7 |
4.4 |
2.4 |
| Universal McCann (12/04) |
|
6.0 |
7.0 |
| Carat (01/05) |
|
6.4 |
4.6 |
| Average |
2.1 |
5.3 |
4.5 |
| Source: As above/compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT |
|
|
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