Mobile subscriptions worldwide are predicted to reach 2.14 billion by the end of 2005, with new forecasts published by Informa Telecoms & Media estimating that subscriptions will exceed 2 billion in the third quarter of this year.
Net additions are expected to exceed 350 million in 2005, building on the record growth of 354 million in 2004. This strong performance is attributed to the decline in mature markets not offsetting growth in developing markets to the extent previously expected by industry experts.
Informa Telecoms & Media reveal that reductions in access fees in rapidly expanding markets, such as Nigeria and Mexico, have impacted on short-term growth of the medium.
The group has also revised its achievable penetration rates upwards for key markets such as China, Russia and Indonesia, resulting from network expansion into regional markets and operator schemes to encourage the uptake of subscriptions among the lower-income segments of the population.
Russia is forecast to account for 43% of net additions in Central and Eastern Europe between 2005-2010, with the mobile market increasing by 89% in 2004 on the back of four previous years of annual growth in excess of 100%.
Elsewhere, the Chinese mobile market is predicted to grow by 65% by the end of 2010, with Informa Telecoms & Media showing the market to have surpassed the 400 million subscription mark in March 2005. Indonesia is expected to exceed 50 million subscriptions in 2007.
Italy, Sweden, Hong Kong and the UK have already passed 100% mobile penetration, with Austria, Denmark, Ireland and Portugal predicted to continue the trend by the end of 2005.
Market penetration of mobile phone ownership in the UK exceeded 100% at the beginning of this year, with the Mobile Data Association showing the number of mobile handsets currently in circulation to be greater than the UK’s population (see UK Mobile Phone Penetration Higher Than Population).
According to market intelligence firm, IDATE, the mobile terminal market grew by 21% between 2003 and 2004, with revenues increasing from about $73.3 billion in 2003 to a predicted $91.5 billion in 2005 (see Mobile Market Forecast To Enjoy Strong 2005), while a report last year from In-Stat/MDR estimated that global mobile phone penetration will grow to 2.5 billion by 2009 (see Growth Returns To Mobile Phone Market).
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