The global broadband market is forecast to pass the 190 million mark this year, and approach 440 million by the end of 2010, according to Informa Telecoms & Media.
In the first edition of the
Future Broadband Markets report, Informa predicts digital subscriber technology (DSL) to strengthen its lead over cable based subscriptions with an anticipated 77% of the world broadband market by 2010.
The report predicts Japan, South Korea, Sweden and Finland to top the broadband penetration tables, at over 30% of the population.
Informa estimates that after 2010, however, the nature of the broadband market may change fundamentally with the advent of WiMAX and other wireless technologies.
Over the next five years, substantial growth is expected in two major Asian markets, with China and India excelling in broadband uptake, while Western Europe, North America and Asia’s wireless industries are forecast to slow.
China is predicted to overtake the US in terms of total broadband subscribers in 2008 and by 2010 Informa expect the country to account for a quarter of all the world’s broadband subscriptions.
China’s wireless penetration rate is predicted to increase over the next four years, rising from the current rate of 25% to over 40% by 2009, according to eMarketer’s latest China Wireless report (see Strong Wireless Penetration Predicted For China).
In a relatively short time, China has become a leading wireless market, with significant opportunities for further growth.
This confirms In-Stat/MDR’s Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Forecasts 2004 – 2009, which predicts that China will continue to lead the world in overall subscriber growth (see Mobile Phone Market Starting To Slow).
Between now and 2010, Informa forecasts the source of revenues for operators to switch substantially from providing access to offering services over broadband, with the most important of these being television.
Internet protocol television (IPTV) is predicted to enjoy strong growth in the coming years aided by rapid advances in digital subscriber line (DSL) penetration, with Informa predicting high profile launches within the area in the second half of 2005 and 2006 (see Digital TV In Western Europe Up 25% In 2005).
Earlier this year, Microsoft completed a series of deals with telecoms operators in Western Europe and the US meaning 75% of fixed phone lines will use Microsoft software to access television services via broadband (see The Future Of Television – IPTV).
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