The UK television and print sectors are expected to enjoy “mild growth” over 2006, according to the latest forecasts from consulting experts Billetts Media.
The report claims that revenues for ITV have continued to decline, with the broadcaster expected to be facing £150 million in revenue deficit.
Billetts attributes the broadcasters decline in revenue to the increasing presence of commercial multichannel broadcasters, whose total penetration of the market is reported to be at 69%. Commercial audiences look set to grow by 2% in 2006, fuelled by an advance in Freeview adoption.
Overall, Billetts predict revenue to remain broadly steady throughout 2006, rising by just 3% as satellite channels increase their offerings.
Turning to print, Billetts forecast quality dailies to continue to see a decline in sales in 2006, with print circulation expected to drop by 3% across the year.
Colour revenues are predicted to remain flat within the print division, while black and white revenues are expected to suffer an 8% drop.
These forecasts mirror those of OPera Media, with the agency expecting 2006 to be a turbulent year for national newspapers.
OPera predicts sales for the quality papers to rise by between 2% and 3% during 2006, but expects mid-market papers The Express and Daily Mail to suffer a 2% to 3% decline, while red top papers will be hit hardest with a 3.5% decline in circulation across the year (see UK Adspend To Hit £15 Billion By 2010).
OPera believes regional newspaper circulation will continue to fall marginally in 2006, but actual readership levels will hold-up as investment in product across the sector pays off.
Looking at ITV, OPera forecasts a substantial loss of revenues for the broadcaster resulting from tumbling audience share and the impact of the Contract Rights Renewal agreement.
The report predicts that ITV1’s overall share of television revenue will drop from 46.8% in 2005 to 43.3% next year in a market expected to grow 2.5%, with ITV1’s potential lost revenue amounting to around £82m in 2006.
In contrast, multi-channel revenues are expected to perform strongly in line with growing digital penetration. Revenues for all multi-channel stations are expected to be up 15% in 2006 accounting for 25.07% of the TV market.
Initiative Media expects TV advertising revenue to rise by 3% in 2006, boosted by increased advertising expenditure due to the World Cup in June and July (see UK Adspend To Rise By 3.7% In 2006).
The press market, however, is expected to remain static in 2006, with a downward trend in sales of national newspapers resulting in advertisers cutting adspend by 1.2%.
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