Global Adspend Growth Fuelled By Online
The global ad market is forecast to grow 5.4% in 2007, 5.8% in 2008 and 5.3% in 2009, staying ahead of the 5.1% rate it has grown at for the past ten years, with this growth looking sustainable in the longer term, according to ZenithOptimedia.
The company predicts that the Internet will take nearly 9% of global adspend by 2009, with the potential to take 10%. The medium takes its highest share in the UK, where it will attract 13.5% of adspend this year and 21.5% in 2009.
Internet Expenditure by Type (US$ million, current prices) | |||||
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
Display | 7,043 | 8,617 | 10,462 | 11,849 | 13,292 |
Search | 7,833 | 10,610 | 13,993 | 16,803 | 19,711 |
Classified | 3,291 | 4,578 | 6,169 | 7,532 | 8,856 |
Other* | 545 | 649 | 721 | 742 | 825 |
TOTAL | 18,712 | 24,454 | 31,344 | 36,926 | 42,685 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2006 | |||||
*email and mobile advertising |
Apart from the Internet, only Cinema and Outdoor are forecast to grow faster than the market to 2009. Newspapers and Magazines are still growing, by 3% and 4% respectively. Print adspend continues to grow by 1% a year, whilst Classified Advertising is migrating to the Internet or being substituted by auction or search sites.
ZenithOptimedia says that this is the first time the company has seen sustained loss of share on a global level for Television adspend, attributing the loss to the migration of viewers from premium mass-audience channels to cheap specialist channels.
The report also states that Radio is losing its share in developed markets, where it is suffering from substitution by paid services, such as satellite radio in the USA, and audio over the Internet.
Growth of major media in the US is forecast to be below the global rate, at 4.1% in 2007 and 2008. Western Europe is also predicted to see a rate of growth that is smaller than the global level, at 3.8% in 2007 and 4.1% in 2008.
China and Russia are forecast to become the second and third largest contributors of new dollars to the world ad market between 2006 and 2009, with each contributing 9% of the extra ad expenditure, with China rising from being sixth largest this year and Russia in thirteenth position for 2006.
Year-On-Year Percentage Change | |||||
Major Media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, internet) | |||||
2005 v 04 | 2006 v 05 | 2007 v 06 | 2008 v 07 | 2009 v 08 | |
North America | 30.0 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.6 |
of which USA | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
Western Europe | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
Asia/Pacific | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 5.9 |
Central & Eastern Europe | 15.4 | 16.6 | 15.6 | 14.4 | 13.9 |
Latin America | 18.9 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5 |
Africa/ Middle East | 15.8 | 22.8 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 10.9 |
World | 5.3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.3 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2006 | |||||
Global Adspend by Medium 2005-2009 (US$ million, current prices) | |||||
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
Newspapers | 119,178 | 123,460 | 127,125 | 131,179 | 135,228 |
Magazines | 52,993 | 54,807 | 57,021 | 59,450 | 62,078 |
Television | 151,187 | 160,391 | 167,149 | 176,671 | 184,502 |
Radio | 34,348 | 35,443 | 36,543 | 37,821 | 39,548 |
Cinema | 1,697 | 1,812 | 1,938 | 2,087 | 2,272 |
Outdoor | 21,769 | 23,473 | 25,190 | 27,054 | 29,126 |
Internet | 18,712 | 24,454 | 31,344 | 36,926 | 42,685 |
TOTAL* | 399,883 | 423,839 | 446,310 | 471,189 | 495,438 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2006 | |||||
*NB: The totals here are lower than the total above, due to that table including total adspend figures for a few countries that do not itemise by medium. |