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Global Adspend Growth Fuelled By Online

Global Adspend Growth Fuelled By Online

The global ad market is forecast to grow 5.4% in 2007, 5.8% in 2008 and 5.3% in 2009, staying ahead of the 5.1% rate it has grown at for the past ten years, with this growth looking sustainable in the longer term, according to ZenithOptimedia.

Internet adspend will grow more than 28% in 2007, while the rest of the market grows 3.9%, with the medium becoming larger than Radio by 2009, according to the group’s latest forecast report.

The company predicts that the Internet will take nearly 9% of global adspend by 2009, with the potential to take 10%. The medium takes its highest share in the UK, where it will attract 13.5% of adspend this year and 21.5% in 2009.

Internet Expenditure by Type (US$ million, current prices) 
 
  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009 
Display 7,043 8,617 10,462 11,849 13,292
Search 7,833 10,610 13,993 16,803 19,711
Classified 3,291 4,578 6,169 7,532 8,856
Other* 545 649 721 742 825
TOTAL  18,712  24,454  31,344  36,926  42,685 
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2006 
*email and mobile advertising 

Apart from the Internet, only Cinema and Outdoor are forecast to grow faster than the market to 2009. Newspapers and Magazines are still growing, by 3% and 4% respectively. Print adspend continues to grow by 1% a year, whilst Classified Advertising is migrating to the Internet or being substituted by auction or search sites.

ZenithOptimedia says that this is the first time the company has seen sustained loss of share on a global level for Television adspend, attributing the loss to the migration of viewers from premium mass-audience channels to cheap specialist channels.

The report also states that Radio is losing its share in developed markets, where it is suffering from substitution by paid services, such as satellite radio in the USA, and audio over the Internet.

Growth of major media in the US is forecast to be below the global rate, at 4.1% in 2007 and 2008. Western Europe is also predicted to see a rate of growth that is smaller than the global level, at 3.8% in 2007 and 4.1% in 2008.

China and Russia are forecast to become the second and third largest contributors of new dollars to the world ad market between 2006 and 2009, with each contributing 9% of the extra ad expenditure, with China rising from being sixth largest this year and Russia in thirteenth position for 2006.

Year-On-Year Percentage Change 
Major Media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, internet) 
  
  2005 v 04  2006 v 05  2007 v 06  2008 v 07  2009 v 08 
North America 30.0 5.2 4.2 4.1 3.6
of which USA  2.9 5.2 4.1 4.1 3.5
Western Europe 3.7 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3
Asia/Pacific 5.4 5.9 6.3 7.4 5.9
Central & Eastern Europe 15.4 16.6 15.6 14.4 13.9
Latin America 18.9 7.2 4.2 4.9 5
Africa/ Middle East 15.8 22.8 10.7 11.8 10.9
World  5.3  6.1  5.4  5.8  5.3 
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2006 
 
 
Global Adspend by Medium 2005-2009 (US$ million, current prices) 
     
  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009 
Newspapers 119,178 123,460 127,125 131,179 135,228
Magazines 52,993 54,807 57,021 59,450 62,078
Television 151,187 160,391 167,149 176,671 184,502
Radio 34,348 35,443 36,543 37,821 39,548
Cinema 1,697 1,812 1,938 2,087 2,272
Outdoor 21,769 23,473 25,190 27,054 29,126
Internet 18,712 24,454 31,344 36,926 42,685
TOTAL*  399,883  423,839  446,310  471,189  495,438 
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2006 
*NB: The totals here are lower than the total above, due to that table including total adspend figures for a few countries that do not itemise by medium. 

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