The number of unbundled local loops in Western Europe will grow from 10.9 million in June 2006 to 28.6 million by the end of 2007, according to new research from Analysys.
The report says that alternative operators will continue to move towards infrastructure-based strategies in order to improve profit margins, which could lead to 24.2 million fully unbundled local loops in service by 2010, a huge increase of 437% on figures for 2005.
Analysis adds that incumbent operators will retain over 50% of the retail DSL market to 2010, a fall from 56% in 2005.
Martin Scott, co-author of the report, said: “Local loop unbundling (LLU) is one of the big successes of 2006, across Western Europe.
“However, LLU could potentially become a victim of its own success. Exchanges are becoming overcrowded and, as incumbents begin to fight back with more competitive wholesale offers and cabinet-based DSL, as in the Netherlands, the balance of power may shift back to incumbents.
“The true landmark figure in the UK is not 1 million unbundled lines but 1.5 million – that’s when BT will restart the battle for the local loop.”
A report from Point Topic published in November said that delays in LLU was one of the reasons for a slow take up of broadband in the first half of 2006 (see Broadband Britain Recovering From Poor Q2).
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