Total US advertising spending is expected to increase 2.6% in 2007 to $153.7 billion, according to a new full-year forecast from TNS Media Intelligence.
TNS says that this anticipated gain is the smallest since the media economy emerged from its 2001 recession and follows estimated advertising spending growth of 3.8% in 2006.
Advertising expenditures are forecast to increase by just 2.1% in the first half of 2007 followed by a gain of 3.2% in the second half, paralleling an expected late year uptick in overall economic activity.
Steven Fredericks, president and chief executive officer, TNS Media Intelligence, said: “Our outlook for 2007 is tempered by the absence of two biennial advertising events, the Olympics and federal elections, which tend to contribute an incremental 80-100 basis points to growth rates.
“More significant, we expect share of total ad spending will continue to shift away from the top 100 marketers, as media fragmentation enables more brands with smaller media budgets to participate in the market, while concurrently helping dampen media price inflation.”
| 2007 Total Ad Expenditures growth Estimates |
| Period |
% Change v 2006 |
| First Half 2007 |
2.10% |
| Second Half 2007 |
3.20% |
| Full Year 2007 |
2.60% |
Internet display advertising is expected to continue growing at double-digit rates in 2007 with syndication TV, outdoor and magazines also exceeding the overall market average. Network TV is projected to be almost flat versus 2006, while newspapers and spot TV are expected to experience outright declines in ad revenue.
| 2007 Projections By Medium (Ranked By Growth Rate) |
| % Share of Ad Spend |
| |
% Change v 2006 |
2007 (forecast) |
2006 (estimate) |
| Internet* |
13.4% |
7.2% |
6.5% |
| Syndication TV |
6.6% |
2.9% |
2.8% |
| Outdoor |
5.7% |
2.6% |
2.5% |
| Consumer & Sunday Magazines |
5.5% |
17.9% |
17.5% |
| Spanish Language Media |
5.4% |
3.3% |
3.2% |
| Cable Network TV |
4.7% |
11.9% |
11.7% |
| Business-to-Business Magazines |
2.1% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
| Radio |
1.7% |
7.3% |
7.4% |
| Network Television |
0.6% |
15.2% |
15.5% |
| Newspapers** |
-0.9% |
17.7% |
18.4% |
| Spot TV |
-2.8% |
10.9% |
11.6% |
| Source: TNS Media Intelligence |
| *Internet estimates reflect display advertising only |
| **Newspaper estimates do not include web site advertising |
| Share figures may not add to 100.0% due to rounding |
According to the Jack Myers Media Business Report, total US advertising spending in 2007 will grow by 3.7% (see US Adspend Forecast To Increase 3.7% In 2007),
Meanwhile, a recent forecast from eMarketer said that total US online ad spending will reach $19.5 billion this year (see US Online Adspend Estimated To Grow This Year)
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