Internet Adspend To Overtake Radio
A new forecast from ZenithOptimedia says that global internet adspend will overtake radio in 2008, a year earlier than it forecast in December.
The internet has its highest share in the UK, where it will attract 16.6% of adspend this year and 22.6% in 2009.
Apart from the internet, only cinema and outdoor are forecast to grow faster than the market to 2009.
| Global Adspend by Medium | |||||
| US$ Million, Current Prices | |||||
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
| Newspapers | 119,269 | 123,405 | 126,191 | 130,231 | 133,719 |
| Magazines | 52,772 | 54,604 | 56,445 | 58,626 | 61,154 |
| Television | 150,881 | 160,670 | 167,823 | 178,735 | 186,412 |
| Radio | 34,382 | 35,334 | 36,347 | 37,503 | 39,105 |
| Cinema | 1,740 | 1,836 | 1,950 | 2,135 | 2,356 |
| Outdoor | 21,806 | 23,775 | 25,483 | 27,396 | 29,487 |
| Internet | 18,727 | 24,385 | 31,271 | 37,910 | 42,912 |
| Total | 399,577 | 424,008 | 445,511 | 472,536 | 495,145 |
| Share of Adspend By medium 2005-2009 (%) | |||||
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
| Newspapers | 29.8 | 29.1 | 28.3 | 27.6 | 27.0 |
| Magazines | 13.2 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| Television | 37.8 | 37.9 | 37.7 | 37.8 | 37.6 |
| Radio | 8.6 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| Cinema | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Outdoor | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Internet | 4.7 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 8.7 |
| Source: ZenithOptimedia | |||||
The Zenith figures show that UK media is underperforming when measured against other countries, growing 0.6% in 2006, equating to a real term decline of 1.6%.
| Share of Adspend | |||
| UK 2006 | Global 2006 | Global 2009 | |
| Newspapers | 33.2% | 29.1% | 27.0% |
| Magazines | 13.0% | 12.9% | 12.4% |
| TV | 27.3% | 37.9% | 37.6% |
| Radio | 3.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% |
| Cinema | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Outdoor | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% |
| Internet | 13.5% | 5.8% | 8.7% |
Television’s share of global advertising expenditure is expected to be just 0.2 percentage points lower in 2009 than it was in 2005.
ZenithOptimedia adds that the internet will to grow six times faster than traditional media between 2006 and 2009 and increase its share of the ad market from 5.8%to 8.7%.
The fastest growing ad markets are in the Middle East and Central and Eastern Europe, with these regions growing at double-digit rates, compensating for an underperforming North America.
World adspend is forecast to grow 5.2% in 2007, on par with the long-term trend, says Zenith, with Olympics, elections and football set to lift growth to 6.2% in 2008.
| Advertising Expenditure By Region | |||||
| Major Media (Newspapers, Magazines, Television, Radio, Cinema, Outdoor, Internet) US$ Million, Current Prices | |||||
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
| North America | 174,072 | 183,182 | 189,551 | 198,103 | 204,192 |
| Western Europe | 98,425 | 102,319 | 106,123 | 110,336 | 114,744 |
| Asia Pacific | 85,511 | 90,332 | 95,878 | 103,267 | 108,297 |
| Central & Eastern Europe | 19,160 | 22,310 | 25,702 | 29,596 | 33,428 |
| Latin America | 18,403 | 20,346 | 21,578 | 23,043 | 24,462 |
| Africa/M. East/ROW | 10,682 | 13,072 | 15,097 | 17,792 | 21,001 |
| World* | 406,254 | 431,562 | 453,928 | 482,137 | 506,123 |
| Source: ZenithOptimedia | |||||
| *The totals here are higher than the totals in the ‘Global advertising expenditure by medium table’, since this table includes total adspend figures for a few countries for which spend is not itemised by medium | |||||
Merrill Lynch last week raised its global online advertising growth forecast from 24.1% & 17.5% in 2007 and 2008 respectively, to 25.5% and 18.8% (see Merrill Lynch Raises Global Online Ad Forecast).
In another recent forecast, eMarketer said that US marketers will continue to shift their spending into online advertising in 2007 (see US Marketers Will Continue To Move Online).