The latest Carat adspend forecasts predict that global adspend growth will be 5.8% this year, fractionally down from last year’s 5.9%.
The 2007 forecast for Western Europe is down slightly from 4.4% to 4.1%. Carat says that online accounts for almost all this growth. Digital television services will continue to grow well throughout the year, although total spending on television is likely to be flat.
In published media, it expects national newspapers to decline by 2-3% in advertising revenues over the year.
The US, which still accounts for nearly half of global adspend, is expected to remain a steady grower at 5.1% this year. Within this, online media remains the fastest growing space.
| Year on Year % Growth At Current Prices |
| |
2006a |
2007e |
2008e |
| Global |
5.9 (6.0) |
5.8 (5.8) |
6.4 |
| USA |
4.9 (5.4) |
5.1 (5.2) |
5.6 |
| Asia Pacific |
7.3 (7.2) |
7.8 (7.4) |
9.3 |
| Japan |
1.8 (2.2) |
1.1 (2.1) |
1.2 |
| China |
19.5 (20.5) |
20.9 (20.0) |
23.1 |
| Europe |
4.4 (4.4) |
4.1 (4.1) |
3.9 |
| UK |
1.4 (1.0) |
4.1 (4.2) |
3.9 |
| Germany |
0.7 (1.9) |
1.0 (1.5) |
1.3 |
| France |
4.8 (4.8) |
3.1 (2.0) |
3.7 |
| Italy |
3.2 (3.4) |
2.7 (2.6) |
3.2 |
| Spain |
4.6 (4.6) |
4.0 (4.0) |
3.7 |
| Figures in brackets show Carat’s previous forecast, issued Dec 2006 |
Mainardo de Nardis, CEO of Aegis Media, said of the Carat forecast: “Looking beyond individual country trends, the global picture is one of healthy growth. At 5.8% this year and 6.4% next, global adspend is comfortably outgrowing world GDP. 2007 is an exciting moment in advertising: media, entertainment and consumer behaviour are evolving on a daily basis.
“But while digital continues to outpace all other media in every corner of the world, rumours of the death of so-called ‘old media’ are exaggerated. In some parts of the world, demand remains vibrant. At the same time, we are watching a variety of new hardware, formats and services with interest.”
Universal McCann has just released a forecast saying that it expects growth of 4.2% in worldwide advertising spending (see Universal McCann Lowers 2007 US Ad Forecast).
Meanwhile, a recent forecast from TNS Media Intelligence said that total US advertising spending is forecast to increase 1.7% in 2007 to $152.3 billion (see US Adspend Forecast To Increase).
Related Links
