A new report from research firm Attentional indicates that the sharp drop in the BBC’s viewing share observed in recent years will flatten out, with the corporation’s network of channels projected to have 32.1% of viewing in 2012.
This figure is down from 34% in 2007, and while Attentional adds that ITV will narrow the gap between itself and the BBC, the BBC will retain the biggest share.
The report says that the most important factor helping the BBC is the historic advantage of its second channel, BBC2. BBC2’s projected viewing share in 2012 (7.5%) far exceeds any of the newer digital channels on either network, and therefore gives the BBC a very substantial advantage.
The Attentional forecast is based on a detailed observation of what people do when they “go digital”, which everyone will do by 2012.
Attentional adds that when people get more channels – and therefore more choice – they watch more television. However, viewers in the ABC1 or “white collar” social groups are more loyal to the traditional channels than viewers in the C2 or DE social groups. Older viewers are also more likely to stay loyal to the networks they already know on analogue, while younger people explore new channels.
Last month, the IPA published its latest Trends in Television Viewing Report covering the last quarter of 2007, which showed that the average number of hours of television viewing each day reached 3.63 hours, compared to 3.60 hours in 2006 (see IPA Reports “Optimistic” Q4 2007 TV Viewing Levels).
A forecast from Attentional that was published in February, suggested that a number of factors would combine to offer a brighter than anticipated future for UK television over the next five years.
The report said that one factor behind this trend is the rapid conversion of older viewers to digital platforms, where the availability of extra channels means they tend to watch more television.
The digital conversion of younger viewers who have so far resisted taking up multichannel technologies is also playing a significant role, whilst the imminent prospect of analogue switch-off, combined with falling multichannel technology prices, means these trends are likely to continue (see Bright Future For UK TV).
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