Revenues from mobile phone sales are expected to grow at 6.8% CAGR between 2007 and 2013, and should exceed $200 billion by the end of 2013, according to Informa Telecoms & Media’s latest Future Mobile Handsets report.
Emerging markets, including Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) and Africa, will make up the majority of global handset market value, with 60% share in 2013.
Growth will not exceed 2% CAGR in developed markets according to the report, handset market value growth rates are slowing significantly in developed markets and, if the current economic slowdown persists, could even turn negative after 2009.
Informa does not expect revenue growth from mobile phone sales to exceed 2% CAGR in Western Europe, 1% in North America, and less than 0.5% in Japan between 2010 and 2013.
The growth in value of the mobile phone market will be driven by the smartphone segment, said Informa, which will see double-digit annual growth until the final year of the forecast period. The annual value of non-smartphones will register almost at zero growth until 2011, partly due to the aggressive migration of subscribers in developed markets to smartphones with an adoption level exceeding 60% in 2011.
After that year, the value of non smartphone sales will start to grow again but this time driven by the uptake of 3G and 3.5G services in emerging markets such as China and India.
The value of the global smartphone market will grow from almost $39 billion in 2007 to more than $95 billion, 47% of the total handset market value in 2013.
Malik Saadi, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media and co-author of the report, said: “This development clearly indicates the industry is entering a new era where product differentiation will increasingly shift from hardware to software.
“Vendors who have prepared themselves for this radical change will find themselves in a better position than those who continue to differentiate their products on the basis of hardware.”
Over 54% of respondents to a recent US mobile phone user survey said that their mobile phone usage had increased by more than 25% over the past two years, while one in five said it had increased by more than 50% (see Ofcom Plans New Public Service Channel To Rival BBC).
Over 60% of respondents to the survey, carried out by Azuki Systems, said that they either own or would own a smartphone in the next 12 months.
A survey commissioned by 02 and carried out by Vanson Bourne, meanwhile, found that brands will have increased their spend on mobile marketing 150% by 2013 (see Brands Increase Mobile Marketing Spend).
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