GroupM forecasts a 5.5% drop in global adspend
Global ad spend in measured media is forecast to drop 5.5% to $417 billion this year, though a mild recovery is expected in 2010 when the decline should ease to 1.4%, according to GroupM’s latest report.
Adam Smith, GroupM futures director, said: “China’s economic stimulus has already bolstered confidence, and the demand for advertising in Russia will recover quickly if $70-a-barrel oil prices are here to stay.
“Brazil and Indonesia remain among the top growth contributors, and India is predicted to come back strongly after pausing in 2009.”
However, GroupM expects advertising expenditures in the US to fall by 4.3% this year, followed by a 6.5% drop in 2010, compared to an average 6.4% decline in 2009 and a 5.5% downturn in 2010 for the G7 nations.
Although Smith stressed that global prospects for a limited ad recovery in 2010 are improving – “Advertising lagged economic recovery for about 18 months after the recession of 1992 and about 12 months after the one in 2001,” he said.
“Our global forecast for 2009 has finally stopped tumbling. The 15 countries still reporting positive ad growth in 2009 has become 33 in 2010, and the number could rise as we phase through the year.”
The report shows that digital media has continued to show growth, rising from 10% of global investment in 2007 to a predicted 15% in 2010, despite many economies cutting back on ad spend in the on-going recession.
Television and out-of-home have also managed to increase its global ad investment share, according to the report, though newspapers continue to decline.
| Media USD m, current prices | 2008 | 2009f | 2010f |
| NORTH AMERICA | 167,492 | 160,441 | 150,578 |
| yoy % | -2 | -4.2 | -6.1 |
| LATIN AMERICA | 18,769 | 20,064 | 22,203 |
| yoy % | 11.3 | 6.9 | 10.7 |
| WESTERN EUROPE | 106,739 | 94,548 | 91,433 |
| yoy % | -1.4 | -11.1 | -3.5 |
| EMERGING EUROPE | 17,904 | 14,977 | 15,377 |
| yoy % | 11.2 | -16.3 | 2.7 |
| ASIA-PACIFIC (all) | 116,866 | 113,579 | 117,174 |
| yoy % | 6.3 | -2.8 | 3.2 |
| NORTH ASIA | 46,359 | 47,025 | 50,933 |
| yoy % | 18.6 | 1.4 | 8.3 |
| ASEAN | 8,827 | 9,210 | 10,196 |
| yoy % | 9.9 | 4.3 | 10.7 |
| MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA | 13,033 | 12,833 | 13,802 |
| yoy % | 20.7 | -1.5 | 7.5 |
| WORLD | 440,803 | 416,443 | 410,566 |
| yoy % | 1.8 | -5.5 | -1.4 |
| Media investment yoy %, adjusted for CPI | 2008 | 2009f | 2010f |
| NORTH AMERICA | -5.5 | -3.4 | -6.1 |
| LATIN AMERICA | 4.2 | 1.1 | 5.6 |
| WESTERN EUROPE | -4.2 | -11.8 | -3.8 |
| EMERGING EUROPE | 2.4 | -18.2 | -2.7 |
| ASIA-PACIFIC (all) | 1.6 | -3.7 | -4.2 |
| NORTH ASIA | 12.5 | 0.9 | 7.3 |
| ASEAN | 0.8 | -0.5 | 5.4 |
| MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA | 9.2 | -7.1 | 2 |
| WORLD | -2.4 | -5.9 | -4.3 |
In March, Jack Myers.com Media Network released a Media Business Report which forecast a 12% drop in US advertising spending in 2009, although it said there may be somewhat of a levelling off in 2010 (see US adspend forecast to drop 12% in 2009).
Earlier this month, TNS Media Intelligence reported a 14.2% year on year decline in US adspend in Q1 2009 to $30.2 billion (see US adspend down 14.2% in Q1 2009).