US playback of recorded TV is growing

However, Magna’s On-Demand Quarterly adds that the reasons for this are unclear. New adopters of DVRs may not spend as much time playing back content on their DVRs compared to “power-users”, who likely were among the first to acquire DVRs, it said.

According to the report, it should follow that DVR use will not increase as rapidly as penetration rises. Although there was a decline in DVR consumption within DVR homes between 4Q06 and 4Q07, in recent periods, this trend has reversed.

Changes are modest but Magna points out a few factors which may explain them:

• More years of owning DVRs causes all audiences to increase reliance on DVRs

• More years of owning DVRs causes some audiences to increase reliance on DVRs

• Programming strategies produce more “DVR-worthy” content which causes increased DVR consumption

The true answers behind live TV erosion are difficult to know with certainty, said Magna. However, total DVR consumption is small in total. By 2011 – 10 years after widespread availability – DVRs will be in approximately 35% of US TV homes.

With less than 10% total-day DVR consumption, less than 4% of total universe TV consumption will occur on DVRs. But over the same 10 years, TV consumed per person and the US population will have increased by more than 10% each. 

This reinforces Magna’s view that DVRs do not necessarily negatively impact the TV industry. Instead, they contribute to viewer attachment to TV and in turn allow it to remain a primary marketing vehicle for the foreseeable future

In June, Magna forecast that US DVR subscriber households will hit 51.1 million (42% of TV households) by the end of 2014.

Elsewhere, Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) analysis found that total US broadcast television ad revenues were down 12.8% year on year in the second quarter of 2009.

Network TV was down 6.9% in Q209, syndicated TV was down 1.5%, and local broadcast TV was down 26.3%, said TVB.