The advertising downturn’s nadir looks to have passed, having hit in Q4 2002, according to Morgan Stanley. Media analysts at the broker say that they have become increasingly convinced that the worst is now over, with signs of stability seen in Q1 2003 persisting.
The US remains stronger than Europe, with advertising growth of around 4% expected this year, whilst Europe sees a slight contraction. The US may be even stronger if the high demand seen in the television upfronts continues into the scatter market (see
US Upfronts Hit Record $9bn-Plus Autumn Sales).
Morgan Stanley says that media buying continues to be the most dynamic aspect of the industry, reflecting the strong upfronts in the US and the ongoing fragmentation of media platforms in Europe.
Despite the low-point of the advertising recession having passed, Morgan remains cautious on the European media sector as a whole.
