Jack Myers, in revising its 2005 US adspend forecasts upwards, has confirmed online’s major role in advertising growth this year. Total advertising for 2005 has been raised from the 2.2% forecast in October 2004, to 4.8% (see Jack Myers Cautious Over 2005 Ad Spending).
Figures released at the end of last month, predict that online advertising will grow by 30% in 2005, up from the 23% forecast by Myers in October. Myers claims that online advertising will continue to grow at rates reminiscent of the late 1990s and traditional banner and pop-up ads are forecast to experience a 20-25 % increase. Internet video advertising and content sponsorships are predicted to grow dramatically in 2005, seeing a 40% growth as broadband penetration continues. Elsewhere, search engine growth will slow slightly in 2005, up 20-30%.
Myers predicts that 2005 will see advertisers shifting their funds to websites developed by traditional media suppliers such as ESPN, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Conde Nast, local newspapers and local TV stations. The Group also forecasts that popularity branded online content will generate the largest share of online revenue growth in 2005.
The media commentary group has also revised upwards its newspaper forecast, up from -1.0% to 4%, saying the medium will be the main beneficiary of marketers’ effort to shift budgets to media where they can generate maximum short-term results, in addition to their growing concerns about the impact of digital video recorders on advertising avoidance.
Network cable television is also expected to grow, generating an increase of 9.2% in adspend, as agency buyers seek improved cost efficiencies.
| 2005 Myers Media Spending Forecast |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
2004 |
2005 |
| |
% Growth |
$ |
% Share |
% Growth |
$ |
% Share |
| Newspapers |
3.5 |
46,300 |
25.5 |
4.1 |
48,198 |
25.3 |
| Broadcast Networks |
6.5 |
17,398 |
9.6 |
4 |
18,094 |
9.5 |
| Local & National Spot TV |
9.0 |
26,511 |
14.6 |
1.5 |
26,909 |
14.1 |
| Broadcast Syndication |
4.0 |
2,907 |
1.6 |
3 |
2,995 |
1.6 |
| Radio |
3.0 |
20,161 |
11.1 |
2 |
20,565 |
10.8 |
| Yellow Pages |
0.0 |
14,117 |
7.8 |
0 |
14,117 |
7.4 |
| Magazines |
8.5 |
20,832 |
11.5 |
4 |
21,665 |
11.4 |
| Network Cable Television |
9.6 |
14,659 |
8.1 |
9.2 |
16,008 |
8.4 |
| Local/Regional Cable TV |
11.0 |
5,120 |
2.8 |
9.8 |
5,622 |
3.0 |
| Online |
25.0 |
7,814 |
4.3 |
30 |
10,158 |
5.3 |
| Outdoor |
5.0 |
5,663 |
3.1 |
4 |
5,890 |
3.1 |
| Total Advertising |
6.3% |
181,483 |
100.0 |
4.8% |
190,221 |
100.0 |
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