The Digital Radio Development Bureau has released its five year forecast for digital radio penetration, predicting that the technology will continue to see dramatic rises in adoption as more consumers discover its increased station choice, digital quality sound, and interference free listening.
DRDB chairman, Ralph Bernard, welcomed the predictions, stating: “DAB Digital Radio continues its healthy climb to mass market penetration in the UK. It is encouraging news that consumers are continuing to buy new receivers to enjoy the new digital stations on offer.”
The report provides an annualised forecast of market volume and market value, as well as predicting cumulative volume and household penetration for the period 2005 to 2009.
The DRDB predicts that, by the end of 2009, there will be around 20 million digital radios in UK homes, up from 1.2 million at the end of 2004. Representing a huge fifteen-fold increase, this is sure to please digital broadcasters, with an expected household penetration of 40% by the end of 2009.
The biggest growth in digital radio is expected to come from boomboxes, hi-fi systems, personal (handheld) radios, clock radios and the in-car sector. This is due, in part, to the expected reductions in price for portable radios. However it is expected that innovations such as an Electronic Programme Guide and the addition of multimedia and interactive services will also fuel growth, with manufacturers able to shore up declining price of basic sets with more expensive, feature laden equipment.
The DRDB expects particular growth from the digital in-car market, with the number of dealer fit and factory line-fit radios expected to grow from 15,000 units in 2005 to 702,000 units in 2009.
The radio body also sees potential growth in radio through mobile phones, portable media players and PCs. However, it also states that these markets are to young to effectively predict and have been intentionally excluded from the forecast.
According to electronic industry auditor GfK, the total of DAB products in UK at the beginning of 2004 was 1,272, surpassing the DABs estimates of 1.2 million in its last five year forecast (see Digital Radio In The UK Set For Boom Time By 2008).
The 2005 DAB Digital Radio Five Year Forecast was produced by the DRDB and national multiplex operator, Digital One, and independently audited by strategy advisors Oliver & Ohlbaum Associates. The forecast is designed to help manufacturers and retailers plan their product roadmaps and range-plans, however it will also allow broadcasters to plan investment and future market strategies.
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