European Mobile Penetration Will Hit 80% Ceiling, Says Forrester
Mobile phone usage in Europe is likely to hit an 80% penetration saturation point around 2008, after which growth is likely to stall, according to new forecasts from Forrester Research.
Forrester reckons that growth will not continue much beyond 80% penetration due to the demographic composition of the population – that is to say, one in five people is younger than 16 years old. For penetration to grow beyond 80%, more than 15% of the under-5s, 30% of those aged 5-9 and 60% of 10-15 year olds would have to own a mobile phone; an unlikely scenario, say analysts.
Internet-based services are also expected to become increasingly prevalent over the period. Already every Nokia phone on the market is net-enabeld. By 2008, 76% of users will have internet-enabled phones and mobile internet usage will reach 48% of the European population, up from just 10% this year.
| European Mobile User Forecasts | ||||||
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | |
| Population | 391,103 | 391,996 | 392,666 | 393,337 | 394,011 | 394,688 |
| Mobile subscribers | 273,034 | 287,109 | 296,555 | 303,055 | 307,507 | 310,685 |
| Net-enabled phone owners | 171,712 | 219,593 | 252,707 | 275,855 | 291,076 | 301,103 |
| Regular mobile internet users | 39,217 | 56,615 | 89,174 | 130,137 | 171,004 | 187,741 |
| Mobile subscriber penetration | 70% | 73% | 76% | 77% | 78% | 79% |
| Net-enabled phone penetration | 44% | 56% | 64% | 70% | 74% | 76% |
| Mobile internet user penetration | 10% | 14% | 23% | 33% | 43% | 48% |
| Source: Forrester Research, June 2003 | ||||||
UK growth In the UK, there are expected to be 48.4 million mobile subscribers by 2008, representing 79% of the country’s population, as shown.
| UK Mobile Subscriber Forecasts | ||
| Subscribers (000s) | Penetration | |
| 2003 | 42,144 | 70% |
| 2004 | 44,350 | 73% |
| 2005 | 45,957 | 75% |
| 2006 | 47,023 | 77% |
| 2007 | 47,851 | 78% |
| 2008 | 48,437 | 79% |
| Source: Forrester Research, June 2003 | ||
