Full Digital TV Penetration Expected To Begin In 2014
Although many countries have experienced impressive growth in the popularity of digital television, no country is expected to have 100% digital penetration until 2014, says a new report from Informa Media Group.
The predicted UK date by Informa may come as no surprise to many within the British television industry, despite the official government target date for analogue switch-off being 2010.
The government has met some criticism about its optimism for the digital switch-over, with many, including the BBC, asking for an extension to this and for more robust plans to be put in place to ensure a smoother transition to digital television in the UK.
Informa says that the switch from analogue to digital has a number of challenges to overcome before being fully adopted by any country, including;
– consumer resistance from late adopters
– governments unwillingness to insist that manufacturers only produce digital-compatible sets
– political implications of governments insisting on analogue switch-off
– operators in developing countries being unable to afford upgrades
– and the continued existence of analogue cable homes
Despite having to wait another 10 years for the first five countries to become fully digital-enabled, Informa has predicted that by the end of this year, 116 million (12%) homes worldwide will receive digital television, with this figure increasing to 370 million (34%) by the end of 2010.
In the UK, the number of new digital homes being added a year will peak from 2007 and 2010, between 13.2 million and 14.8 million. The UK is also set for faster growth than the US during this period, with annual additions in the US reaching a maximum of 10.6 million.
| Annual Additions Of Digital Homes (Million) | |||||
| Asia Pacific | Europe | Latin America | North America | Global | |
| Year | |||||
| 2000 | 0.8 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 9.2 | 17.6 |
| 2001 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 9.1 | 15.1 |
| 2002 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 12.5 |
| 2003 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 15.0 |
| 2004 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 0.8 | 7.5 | 22.4 |
| 2005 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 7.4 | 28.0 |
| 2006 | 18.0 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 10.6 | 38.8 |
| 2007 | 17.1 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 10.5 | 42.1 |
| 2008 | 20.1 | 14.2 | 1.5 | 10.1 | 45.9 |
| 2009 | 22.5 | 14.8 | 1.7 | 10.0 | 49.1 |
| 2010 | 26.0 | 13.2 | 2.8 | 7.9 | 49.9 |
| Source: Informa Media Group, November 2004 | |||||
As digital television reached over 100 million homes in February this year (see Digital TV Reaches Over 100m Homes), Informa predicts that the 200 million landmark will take place in 2007, with 300 million being reached by 2009. This shows impressive growth when compared to the 2.3 million worldwide digital households in 1995.
Although North America is out in front in terms of penetration, the gap with Europe is expected to close by 2010, when North America will account for only 31% of digital households, compared to Europe with 29% of the total. Currently, North America accounts for 49% of digital television homes worldwide and Europe 32%.
Overall however, Asia is expected to become the dominant continent by 2010, accounting for 36% of the total, up from 11% in 2003.
| Digital TV Homes (million) | |||||
| 1995 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2010 | |
| Asia Pacific | 0 | 10.5 | 18.0 | 30.7 | 134.4 |
| Europe | 0 | 30.4 | 37.0 | 44.1 | 108.5 |
| Latin America | 0 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 13.9 |
| North America | 2.3 | 49.0 | 56.4 | 63.8 | 113.0 |
| Total | 2.3 | 93.7 | 116.1 | 144.1 | 369.8 |
| Source: Informa Media Group, November 2004 | |||||
Cable will become the main source of digital television, bringing in 229 million homes by 2010, followed by DTH, which is still way behind with 86 million. However currently, DTH is the digital leader with 61.8 million (53%) subscribers.
DSL entertainment signals will be the least popular, pulling in only 22 million homes. Despite the impressive figures, there will still be two-thirds of households worldwide receiving analogue signals, leaving plenty of scope for further digital growth.
In Europe, cable will be the most popular source of digital television with 45.5 million homes opting for this by 2010 and 31.3 million choosing DTH.
| Digital TV Household Composition In 2010 (million) | |||||
| DTT | Cable | DTH | DSL Entertainment | Total TV* | |
| Asia Pacific | 8.6 | 100.1 | 15.3 | 10.4 | 605.4 |
| Europe | 21.9 | 45.5 | 31.3 | 9.8 | 237.5 |
| Latin America | 1.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 106.7 |
| North America | 1.0 | 76.1 | 34.6 | 1.3 | 126.4 |
| Total | 32.7 | 228.8 | 86.0 | 22.4 | 1076.0 |
| Source: Informa Media Group, November 2004 | |||||
| *includes digital and analogue homes | |||||