ITV advertising could be down as much as 20% in April, according to reports from media buyers, in contrast to analysts ABN AMRO’s forecast of a 10% fall. If the 20% prediction turns out to be true, it will reduce ABN’s full year growth rate prediction from -1.3% to -2.3% and, given that last year growth during May and June echoed that of April, these months could see a similarly drastic decline.
Blame for the decline is partly being placed with the weakness of the dotcom sector, compared to last year’s boom, and also on the foot and mouth disease outbreak. However, all sectors are weak, with motors, for example, down 10%. In contrast Channel 4 and Channel 5 are expected to see growth of 5% or more each during April.
A recovery is widely expected during the second half of this year, but if April is as bad as is feared, this would have to be dramatic – to the tune of +10% – if original forecasts are to be met. ABN AMRO has warned that this is unlikely as the risk of further shocks and downgrades is ongoing.
