Magna’s latest global ad forecast predicts worldwide advertising spending will rise 4.4% this year, with the UK forecast to see 3% growth.
Adspend in the US is predicted to rise 2%, with growth in most developed industrialised countries expected to be quite modest.
However, emerging countries such as China, Russia, India and Brazil will push overseas ad growth to 6.3%.
Combined total worldwide ad spending in 2008 is now expected to total $667.9 billion. The latest expected total worldwide advertising gain of 4.4% compares with a December forecast of 4.6%.
The economy should gradually improve in 2009, but is not likely to spur much expansion in ad spending next year, said Magna. There will not be extra Olympic or election ad spending in 2009 and, although the comparisons will be easier, not much improvement is likely until 2010.
Robert Coen’s Insider Report was previously written under the Universal McCann name but this latest report has been done for Magna.
| 2008 Ad Outlook In Key Industrialised Countries (Percentage Change Over Prior Year In Normal Currencies) |
| Country |
2006 |
2007 |
Forecast 2008 |
| Japan |
1.0% |
1.1% |
1.7% |
| Germany |
2.7% |
2.2% |
2.6% |
| United Kingdom |
1.0% |
4.0% |
3.0% |
| France |
3.5% |
2.9% |
3.0% |
| Italy |
-0.2% |
1.1% |
1.7% |
| Spain |
7.1% |
5.9% |
5.3% |
| Canada |
7.7% |
4.1% |
3.7% |
| Brazil |
15.5 |
12.0% |
10.0% |
| Mexico |
12.3% |
5.0% |
4.0% |
| Australia |
5.0% |
4.6% |
4.6% |
| Netherlands |
5.3% |
4.5% |
5.1% |
| United States |
3.9% |
-0.7% |
2.0% |
| Source: Magna |
Magna also revealed that 2007 turned out to be significantly worse than expected in the US, as total spending was down almost 1% to $280 billion.
| Outlook For 2008 US National Advertising |
| |
% Change Over 2007 |
2008 Projections $(000,000) |
| 4 TV Networks |
7.0% |
$17,808 |
| Spot TV |
10.0% |
$11,152 |
| Cable TV |
8.0% |
$22,263 |
| Syndication TV |
8.0% |
$3,595 |
| Radio |
-0.9% |
$4,216 |
| Magazines |
1.0% |
$13,925 |
| Newspapers |
-7.0% |
$6,146 |
| Consumer Media Sub-Total |
5.0% |
$79,105 |
| Direct Mail |
2.5% |
$61,731 |
| Yellow Pages |
0.0% |
$2,185 |
| Internet |
12.0% |
$11,792 |
| Other National Media |
3.5% |
$38,249 |
| Total National |
4.2% |
$193,062 |
| Source: Universal McCann |
GroupM recently revised down its 2008 UK ad growth forecast to 4% from 6%, adding that – excluding internet – traditional media revenue will fall 2% this year and 2% in 2009 (see GroupM Revises Down 2008 Ad Forecast).
It added that the current ad slowdown is unlikely to affect the internet much forecasting that it will grow 27% this year and 20% next year.
ZenithOptimedia, meanwhile, has forecast world adspend growth of 6.6% this year, up slightly from the 6.5% growth it predicted in March (see Developing Markets Propel World Ad Expenditure Growth).
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