Global Adspend To Rise 5.8% In 2004, Says Initiative

The agency network forecasts that worldwide adspend will rise by 5.8% to reach $331.4 billion in 2004. This figure accounts for the combined markets of the 44 countries on Initiative’s survey. Leading the way – and far ahead of other key markets – will be China, whose ad expenditure is expected to jump by 15.0% year on year. The next strongest major market is the USA, at a growth of 4.9%.

One of the key characteristics of the ad markets over the next few years will be a shift in the global balance of power, according to the report. Thanks to strong growth in Japan and China, Asia is expected to overtake Western Europe as the second largest advertising region, behind the US. Should current growth rates continue, this could happen as early as next year.

China is already the world’s third largest advertising economy, behind the US and Japan, having overtaken Germany for the first time in 2003. For the fourth year in a row China is the only market expected to exhibit double-digit growth in 2004.

The UK ad market is forecast to rise by 4.2% this year, after a predicted 2.2% rise in 2003. The 2004 forecast is in line with a MediaTelINSIGHT-compiled consensus prediction of 4.4%, as shown below.

Top Five Market Advertising Growth Forecasts
	2002	2003	2004
US	4.0	4.3	4.9
Japan	-5.3	2.0	4.1
China	25.1	14.9	15.0
Germany	-4.1	2.4	1.5
UK	3.3	2.2	4.2
Source: Initiative Media, February 2004

LATEST UK ADVERTISING GROWTH FORECASTS
ÂÂ	ÂÂ	ÂÂ
ÂÂ	2003	2004	2005
Advertising Association* (09/03)	0.5	6.3	–
Interdeco/Ad Barometer (10/03)	1.1	3.3	–
Mediaedge:cia (10/03)	3.0	5.0	6.0
Merrill Lynch (02/04)	1.0	3.0	5.8
Universal McCann (12/03)	3.0	5.5	–
Zenith Optimedia (12/03)	1.1	3.2	2.9
Average	1.6	4.4	4.9
* Display revenue only
Source: As above/compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT