GroupM has revised down its 2008 ad growth forecast to 4% from 6%, adding that – excluding internet – traditional media revenue will fall 2% this year and 2% in 2009.
TV advertising is expected to fall 2% in both 2008 and 2009, with national newspapers also down, by 3% this year and 4% next year.
The current ad slowdown is unlikely to affect the internet much, said GroupM, forecasting that it will grow 27% this year and 20% next year.
National newspapers are forecast to be down 3% this year, and 4% in 2009, with regional newspapers also predicted to dip, by 4% this year and 5% next year.
Outdoor, forecast to grow 5% this year and 4% next year, is coping with unusually short lead times: the usual quarter-by-quarter demand clarity is down to little more than a month, and once in this cycle it is hard to stretch it again, said GroupM.
| UK Ad Growth Forecast 2007 – 2009 |
| YoY% Change |
2007f |
2008f |
2009f |
| TV |
2.2 |
-2.0 |
-1.8 |
| Radio |
3.4 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
| National Newspapers |
-2.1 |
-2.5 |
-3.8 |
| Regional Newspapers |
-4.3 |
-4.4 |
-4.6 |
| Consumer Magazines |
-0.4 |
-2.9 |
-3.5 |
| B2B Magazines |
0.8 |
-1.0 |
-0.5 |
| Outdoor |
5.7 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
| Cinema |
10.1 |
3.0 |
1.2 |
| Internet |
36.0 |
27.2 |
19.7 |
| Media Total |
5.8 |
4.1 |
3.3 |
| Source: GroupM |
| Ad Spend by Medium |
| £m, net |
2007f |
2008f |
| TV |
3,500 |
3,431 |
| Radio |
422 |
431 |
| National Newspapers |
1,570 |
1,530 |
| Regional Newspapers |
2,279 |
2,179 |
| Consumer Magazines |
706 |
685 |
| B2B Magazines |
902 |
893 |
| Outdoor |
784 |
820 |
| Cinema (includes production) |
176 |
181 |
| Internet |
2,646 |
3,366 |
| Media Total |
12,986 |
13,517 |
| Source: GroupM |
Adam Smith, GroupM futures director and compiler of the report, said: “Traditional UK media advertising (ie everything but the internet) has actually lagged well behind the economy for a decade now, through boom and bust. This is because of much harder competition for audience and advertisers within each medium and against the internet.
“From the advertisers perspective, UK media is much more competitive and productive than it was in any prior boom or bust. If media cannot win the investment-versus-cost argument at these prices, it never will.”
ZenithOptimedia has forecast that global adspend will grow 6.6% in 2008, up slightly from the 6.5% growth predicted in its March forecast (see Ofcom Plans New Public Service Channel To Rival BBC).
The recent global advertising revenue forecast from PricewaterhouseCoopers estimated that global revenues will rise by an average of 6.6% a year by 2012, reaching to $2.2 trillion (see Global Advertising Revenue To Reach $2.2 Trillion by 2012).
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