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Insight Analysis: Our Digital Future

Insight Analysis: Our Digital Future

The growth of digital TV has been impressive, from a standing start at the end of 1998 to 5.5m Sky Digital subscribers and 1.1m ITV Digital subscribers by June this year. Sky has pulled ahead of its Granada/Carlton owned rival, but progress for both has been steady. Jupiter MMXI recently predicted that over 50% of UK homes be digital by 2005, while the Government has reiterated its confidence in a 2010 analogue switch-off date in the light of Merrill Lynch’s forecasts for non-terrestrial platforms. So can the main digital service providers maintain subscriber uptake momentum?

Sky’s digital subscriber success owes a lot to its diligence in converting existing analogue customers to the new platform. However, by the end of March this year, over 94% had made the switch, leaving just a few hundred thousand which will make little further impact on Sky’s total. Sky must now compete on a level playing field with ITV Digital, which began from scratch.

The fact that ITV Digital’s subscriber growth has been steady contrasts with the problematic image it has presented during its lifetime. This culminated in the name change from ONdigital earlier this year, following rumours of disquiet about the continued investment in the service from shareholders. Despite this, the service announced recently that it expected to break even by 2004, while the re-launch and accompanying ad campaign appears to have done the trick, delivering an audience boost “beyond expectation” according to Granada chief executive Steve Morrison.

A problem that affects both services is churn. Sky’s 10% churn rate is not good, but pales beside ITV Digital’s 23% rate. This suggests that digital TV needs to do more to convince existing customers that their investment in services was worthwhile, as well as tempting new converts.

One source of inspiration may be the new digital channels planned by the BBC. Sky has been among those protesting against the plans to use more licence fee money to fund digital services, but if the BBC manages to create some genuinely high quality and attractive options for digital viewers, Sky could benefit, especially if social groups not currently attracted by the digital offering are brought in.

Digital broadcasters may also look to capitalising on interactive services that have found favour with users. Although the hype surrounding internet access and email via the TV has fallen flat, EPGs, video on demand and interactive sports coverage could provide a key selling point to drive future sales.

Merrill Lynch Forecasts For UK Cable And Satellite Penetration 
(figures in 000s)  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008 
No. UK TV Households 23,710 23,915 24,102 24,283 24,465 24,648 24,833 25,019 25,207 25,396 25,587 25,779
Total UK DTH & Cable & DTT Subscribers 6,027 6,389 7,809 9,569 11,149 12,732 14,442 15,844 17,200 18,464 19,448 20,340
Total Digital Pay TV Subscribers   244 2,737 6,521 9,262 11,650 14,058 15,713 17,063 18,389 19,373 20,265
Total Digital TV Homes   244 2,737 6,571 9,962 13,100 16,258 18,663 20,763 22,839 24,573 25,779
BSkyB Penetration Of UK H/holds % 15 14 16 20 24 26 28 28 28 29 29 29
Broadband Cable Penetration Of UK H/holds % 10 12 14 15 16 18 20 22 24 27 28 29
OnDigital Penetration Of UK H/holds %   0 2 4 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11
DSL Penetration Of UK H/holds %       0 0 1 3 4 6 7 8 9
Total DTH,B.Cable,OnDigital & DSL Pen. Of UK % HHs 25 26 32 39 45 51 58 63 68 72 76 79
DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) Subscribers       9 43 206 609 1,001 1,379 1,720 2,020 2,279
Total Cable (in 000s) 2,541 3,012 3,422 3,662 3,986 4,461 4,995 5,601 6,225 6,808 7,223 7,598
Broadband Cable Penetration % 22 24 26 27 28 29 29 30 31 32 33 33
BSkyB Analogue 3,486 3,133 1,796 257                
BSkyB Digital   225 2,064 4,667 5,771 6,372 6,860 7,024 7,171 7,305 7,425 7,534
DTT (Digital Terrestrial TV) Subscribers   19 527 975 1,349 1,692 1,978 2,218 2,424 2,632 2,780 2,930
UK Broadband Cable Subscribers 2,374 2,826 3,245 3,586 3,911 4,386 4,919 5,526 6,150 6,732 7,148 7,523
UK Narrowband Cable Subscribers 81 89 27                  
Cable Digital     146 870 2,098 3,379 4,611 5,471 6,089 6,732 7,148 7,523
Cable Analogue 2,374 2,826 3,099 2,716 1,813 1,007 308 55 62      
% of Pay TV Subs that are Digital   4 35 68 83 92 97 99 99 100 100 100
% of TV Homes that are Digital   1 11 27 41 53 66 75 82 90 96 100
BSkyB Res DTH (Growth) 4 -4 15 28 17 10 8 2 2 2 2 2
Broadband Cable (Growth) 27 19 15 11 9 12 12 12 11 10 6 5
ONdigital TV (Growth)       85 38 25 17 12 9 9 6 5
Source: Merrill Lynch estimates

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