Insight Analysis: Our Digital Future
The growth of digital TV has been impressive, from a standing start at the end of 1998 to 5.5m Sky Digital subscribers and 1.1m ITV Digital subscribers by June this year. Sky has pulled ahead of its Granada/Carlton owned rival, but progress for both has been steady. Jupiter MMXI recently predicted that over 50% of UK homes be digital by 2005, while the Government has reiterated its confidence in a 2010 analogue switch-off date in the light of Merrill Lynch’s forecasts for non-terrestrial platforms. So can the main digital service providers maintain subscriber uptake momentum?
Sky’s digital subscriber success owes a lot to its diligence in converting existing analogue customers to the new platform. However, by the end of March this year, over 94% had made the switch, leaving just a few hundred thousand which will make little further impact on Sky’s total. Sky must now compete on a level playing field with ITV Digital, which began from scratch.
The fact that ITV Digital’s subscriber growth has been steady contrasts with the problematic image it has presented during its lifetime. This culminated in the name change from ONdigital earlier this year, following rumours of disquiet about the continued investment in the service from shareholders. Despite this, the service announced recently that it expected to break even by 2004, while the re-launch and accompanying ad campaign appears to have done the trick, delivering an audience boost “beyond expectation” according to Granada chief executive Steve Morrison.
A problem that affects both services is churn. Sky’s 10% churn rate is not good, but pales beside ITV Digital’s 23% rate. This suggests that digital TV needs to do more to convince existing customers that their investment in services was worthwhile, as well as tempting new converts.
One source of inspiration may be the new digital channels planned by the BBC. Sky has been among those protesting against the plans to use more licence fee money to fund digital services, but if the BBC manages to create some genuinely high quality and attractive options for digital viewers, Sky could benefit, especially if social groups not currently attracted by the digital offering are brought in.
Digital broadcasters may also look to capitalising on interactive services that have found favour with users. Although the hype surrounding internet access and email via the TV has fallen flat, EPGs, video on demand and interactive sports coverage could provide a key selling point to drive future sales.
Merrill Lynch Forecasts For UK Cable And Satellite Penetration | ||||||||||||
(figures in 000s) | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
No. UK TV Households | 23,710 | 23,915 | 24,102 | 24,283 | 24,465 | 24,648 | 24,833 | 25,019 | 25,207 | 25,396 | 25,587 | 25,779 |
Total UK DTH & Cable & DTT Subscribers | 6,027 | 6,389 | 7,809 | 9,569 | 11,149 | 12,732 | 14,442 | 15,844 | 17,200 | 18,464 | 19,448 | 20,340 |
Total Digital Pay TV Subscribers | 244 | 2,737 | 6,521 | 9,262 | 11,650 | 14,058 | 15,713 | 17,063 | 18,389 | 19,373 | 20,265 | |
Total Digital TV Homes | 244 | 2,737 | 6,571 | 9,962 | 13,100 | 16,258 | 18,663 | 20,763 | 22,839 | 24,573 | 25,779 | |
BSkyB Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 15 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
Broadband Cable Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
OnDigital Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | |
DSL Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |||
Total DTH,B.Cable,OnDigital & DSL Pen. Of UK % HHs | 25 | 26 | 32 | 39 | 45 | 51 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 72 | 76 | 79 |
DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) Subscribers | 9 | 43 | 206 | 609 | 1,001 | 1,379 | 1,720 | 2,020 | 2,279 | |||
Total Cable (in 000s) | 2,541 | 3,012 | 3,422 | 3,662 | 3,986 | 4,461 | 4,995 | 5,601 | 6,225 | 6,808 | 7,223 | 7,598 |
Broadband Cable Penetration % | 22 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 33 |
BSkyB Analogue | 3,486 | 3,133 | 1,796 | 257 | ||||||||
BSkyB Digital | 225 | 2,064 | 4,667 | 5,771 | 6,372 | 6,860 | 7,024 | 7,171 | 7,305 | 7,425 | 7,534 | |
DTT (Digital Terrestrial TV) Subscribers | 19 | 527 | 975 | 1,349 | 1,692 | 1,978 | 2,218 | 2,424 | 2,632 | 2,780 | 2,930 | |
UK Broadband Cable Subscribers | 2,374 | 2,826 | 3,245 | 3,586 | 3,911 | 4,386 | 4,919 | 5,526 | 6,150 | 6,732 | 7,148 | 7,523 |
UK Narrowband Cable Subscribers | 81 | 89 | 27 | |||||||||
Cable Digital | 146 | 870 | 2,098 | 3,379 | 4,611 | 5,471 | 6,089 | 6,732 | 7,148 | 7,523 | ||
Cable Analogue | 2,374 | 2,826 | 3,099 | 2,716 | 1,813 | 1,007 | 308 | 55 | 62 | |||
% of Pay TV Subs that are Digital | 4 | 35 | 68 | 83 | 92 | 97 | 99 | 99 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
% of TV Homes that are Digital | 1 | 11 | 27 | 41 | 53 | 66 | 75 | 82 | 90 | 96 | 100 | |
BSkyB Res DTH (Growth) | 4 | -4 | 15 | 28 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Broadband Cable (Growth) | 27 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 5 |
ONdigital TV (Growth) | 85 | 38 | 25 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 | |||
Source: Merrill Lynch estimates |