Insight Analysis: Star-Studded Future Beckons For The Magazine Market

Areas which contribute most to publisher’s circulations are the women’s monthly and weekly markets. However, with both markets declining, they are not expected to be growth areas in future. Forecaster Optimedia’s expectation falls on celebrity title launches, such as Heat, which managed a 137% increase in the latest results. Crossover with the women’s market will be seen in new celebrity style titles InStyle (Time Warner) and Glamour (Condé Nast). More titles are also expected in TV listings, which saw growth of over 50% fuelled in part by the rise of non-terrestrial viewing.

One area set for a dip is the gaming market, which slipped over 4%, saw several closures and witnessed the sector’s main player, Future Publishing, experiencing financial problems. Certain areas of the men’s magazine market are also expected to see problems, partly through saturation of the sector and also because the response to intensively targeted style titles has not been good.

One area where launches are imminent despite declining ABC figures is the teen market, where Elle Girl and another teen title are planned by Emap, and Cosmo Girl is due from Natmags. Anthony Jones, European research director at Optimedia claims that ABC figures are becoming the primary source of negotiation for agencies, so why would publishers launch into declining sectors?

Siobhan Kenny, director of communications at Natmags, is confident the market will accommodate new ideas: “Only certain teen titles have suffered, and in our experience, a great product will always do well,” she insists. “Cosmo Girl is a different proposition from anything else in the teen market, and we know from our initial soundings that advertisers are excited about it.” Jones agrees, saying that the new titles will see a demographic shift older to younger teens and more style- oriented, aspirational editorial.

In the last decade magazine market revenue has grown at a rate above inflation, although in real terms its share has decreased thanks to the expansion of the market. However, recent forecasts from Optimedia anticipate that 2001 will echo 2000’s 2% growth in advertising revenue, which brought it to £742m. In the two years following this, growth is expected to be up to 3%, suggesting that the fickle fortunes of ABC figures are not enough to spook either advertisers or publishers.