INSIGHTanalysis: Media Healthcheck – January 2007
January saw several advertising forecasts released for the year ahead, with many of them placing online adspend at the forefront of expected growth.
The report added that the underlying economic forces that drive adspend are likely to continue to be positive for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, a forecast from Merrill Lynch estimated 5.0% UK advertising growth in 2007, with global growth at 3.6% and Western European growth at 4.3% (see 5.0% Ad Growth Forecast For UK In 2007).
This is lower than McCann, ZenithOptimedia and Aegis’ global forecasts of 5.3%, 5.4% and 5.8% respectively in 2007, whilst Merrill Lynch’s US forecast of 2.9% for 2007 is also lower than McCann’s forecast of 4.8%, ZenithOptimedia’s 4.1% and Aegis’ 5.2%.
An eMarketer report forecast that online advertising in Western Europe will reach $7.5 billion this year, up from $6.0 billion last year.
The report added that internet use is growing strongly, with 45% of internet users in Europe going online every day and spending 11 hours and 20 minutes a week online, compared to 10 hours and 15 minutes per week in 2005 (see Western European Online Advertising To Reach $7.5 Billion).
Point Topic, in figures released at the start of the month, said that broadband lines in the UK reached 13.1 million by the end of 2006 by adding more than 3.1 million new lines in the year.
However, Point Topic added that this is a disappointment for many operators as this figure is 20% down on the number added in 2005 (see UK Broadband Lines Reach 13.1 Million).
According to The Diffusion Group (TDG), the number of broadband enabled TVs is expected to exceed 162 million households globally by 2011 (see Broadband Enabled TVs To Exceed 162 Million), with Colin Dixon, senior analyst and author of the TDG report Broadband Video: Redefining the Television Experience, saying: “In the next few years, a growing number of consumers will look to the internet as means of expanding the variety of content to which they have access, much of which will be available on-demand and specifically suited to their tastes.”
Sticking with television, DGA predicted that over 55s are set to be at the forefront of Freeview takeup in the UK over the next two years, with channels such as BBC4 and ITV3 set to benefit the most.
The media analyst said that we are now at a turning point for the 55+ group, with rapid conversion over the next two years (mainly to the DTT platform). DGA forecast a rise to 82% of viewers aged 55+ in the C2DE social groups having access to multichannel services by 2008 (see UK Digital Platforms Set For ‘Grey Boom’).
JupiterResearch meanwhile claimed that Freeview will be the big digital switchover winner in the next five years, with pay-TV companies set for a struggle to win customers.
JupiterResearch’s report said that there are 5.3 million households in the UK which are still only able to receive analogue television, adding that over the next five years 4.6 million households will go for Freeview’s DTT service (see Freeview To Be Digital Switchover Winner).