At the end of March, GroupM predicted that UK advertising spending would fall 11.2% in 2009, with global spending forecast to fall 4.4% to $425 billion.
Western Europe was predicted to dip 6.7% in 2009, with Germany proving the most resilient regional advertising market (see
GroupM forecasts 11.2% fall in UK adspend in 2009).
Carat predicted that UK adspend would fall 7.1% in 2009, with worldwide spend falling 5.8% (see Carat forecasts 7.1% drop in UK advertising spend this year).
Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Aegis Media, said: “Worldwide, we estimate that 2009’s advertising spend will contract 5.8%. China aside, no major market will see growth this year. But we are seeing some signs for optimism in some countries in 2010. We believe that the UK, parts of Europe and Asia will start to stabilise.”
There was a gloomy prediction from Jack Myers.com Media Network, which forecast a 12% drop in US adspend in 2009, although it added that there could be a levelling off in 2010 (see US adspend forecast to drop 12% in 2009).
The report predicted a double-digit drop in total ad spending in 2009, following a 4% decline in 2008. The decline was predicted to carry into 2010, with a 5% dip for the full year.
There was brighter news from across the pond, however, as the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers published their latest report into US online ad spending.
It showed that full year 2008 revenues totaled a record $23.4 billion, exceeding 2007’s then-record performance by $2.2 billion or 10.6% (see US internet adspend topped $23bn in 2008).
Sticking with online, eMarketer forecast 17.3% growth for global spending on social media advertising in 2009 (see Global adspend on social media predicted to rise 17.3% in 2009).
It said that marketers would invest $2.35 billion (£1.64 billion) on ads on social networking sites by the end of 2009, with this figure rising to $3.49 billion over the coming four years.
Looking back at 2008, US advertising was down 2.6% compared to 2007, according to figures from Nielsen, which put the 2008 total at $136.8 billion.
Print media continued its decline in 2008, said Nielsen. Local and national newspaper ad spends declined 10.2% and 9.6% respectively. National magazines fell 7.6%, while local magazines dropped 3.7% (see US ad spend down 2.6% in 2008).
In the UK, meanwhile, total adspend fell by 3.9% for the full year 2008, and was down 9.6% year on year in the fourth quarter, according to research from the World Advertising Research Center on behalf of the Advertising Association (AA).
Newspapers grabbed a 25% share of total adspend, said the AA, just ahead of TV with 23%, while online took a 20% share (see UK adspend fell 3.9% in 2008).
