ITV Ad Revenue Monthly Forecasts From Merrill Lynch
ITV’s ad revenue growth in 2003 is expected to be just 0.5% in a market up by 3.3%, according to Merrill Lynch forecasts. The discrepancy between the two figures is a result of ITV’s loss of market share during year-end negotiations, due to falling viewing figures over the last year (see ITV Shows Autumn Pick-Up In Viewing And Revenue).
Whilst viewing has picked up during August and is now showing a flat comparison with 2001 (with further short-term improvements on the cards), the broader decline has begun to eat into ITV’s advertising pounds.
The longer-term forecasts here show a gently positive start to 2003, followed by a dip into decline once more difficult comparables kick in. FY2003 is expected to show just 0.5% growth; 2002 is forecast to be down 1.1%, whilst 2004 is set for 3.9% growth.
| ITV Advertising Revenue Growth Forecasts | |||||||||||||
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December | Total | |
| 2001 | -9.5 | -5.8 | -8.3 | -18.8 | -20.2 | -24.1 | -14.7 | -7.1 | -18.0 | -12.1 | -12.9 | -3.1 | -13.3 |
| 2002 | -16.0 | -16.8 | -7.1 | -11.6 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 1.8 | -4.5 | -1.1 |
| 2003 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 4.0 | -5.0 | -8.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 2004 | 3.9 | ||||||||||||
| Source: Merrill Lynch, October 2002 | |||||||||||||
