Lehman Upgrades ITV Ad Forecasts Following Carlton Results
Analysts at Lehman Brothers have upgraded their advertising growth forecasts for ITV, following the release of Carlton Communications’ financial results yesterday (see Carlton Profits Hit By Ad Slowdown And ITV Digital Failure).
Whilst the results showed advertising down by 13% for the six months to 31 March 2002, the company said that there are now early signs of recovery in demand for advertising in the second half, even taking into account the expected fillip of the World Cup finals in June.
As a result, Lehman has upgraded its full year ITV ad growth forecasts from the previous -8.0% to -6.0%, with positive performances in both Q3 and Q4. Previously the broker had expected a positive growth in Q3, followed by a return to decline in Q4 as shown.
| 2002 UK ITV Advertising Forecasts (£m) | |||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Full Year | |
| New | |||||
| Revenue (£m) | 449.1 | 385.1 | 425.4 | 351.5 | 1,611.1 |
| YoY % Change | -11.8 | -14.3 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -6.0 |
| Previous | |||||
| Revenue (£m) | 449.1 | 385.1 | 425.4 | 351.5 | 1,611.1 |
| YoY % Change | -11.8 | -14.3 | 0.5 | -5.0 | -8.0 |
| Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2002 | |||||
Lehman is leaving its 2003 forecast of 4.0% growth in ITV ad revenue unchanged. The full forecasts as they now stand are shown in the graphs and table below. For a report on the previous set of forecasts click ITV Ad Revenue Forecasts From Lehman Brothers.
| UK ITV Advertising Forecasts (£m) | |||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Full Year | |
| 1999 | 495.6 | 437.4 | 452.8 | 446.9 | 1,832.7 |
| YoY % Change | 5.2 | 12.3 | -4.7 | 11.5 | 5.5 |
| 2000 | 525.3 | 482.7 | 534.5 | 439.1 | 1,981.6 |
| YoY % Change | 6.0 | 10.4 | 18.0 | -1.7 | 8.1 |
| 2001 | 509.0 | 449.5 | 423.3 | 370.0 | 1,751.8 |
| YoY % Change | -3.1 | -6.9 | -20.8 | -15.7 | -11.6 |
| 2002 | 449.1 | 385.1 | 427.5 | 384.8 | 1,646.5 |
| YoY % Change | -11.8 | -14.3 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -6.0 |
| 2003 | 467.1 | 400.5 | 444.6 | 400.2 | 1,712.4 |
| YoY % Change | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2002 (revised) | |||||