Red-tops are forecast to be hit worst by declining circulations over the next few years, with freesheets and online taking over from traditional print media, according to the results of a new survey on the future of the UK national newspaper industry, conducted by MediaTel INSIGHT.
The survey, of fifteen of the top thirty media agencies, obtained views on four main topics: circulation forecasts for the next few years for both Daily and Sunday newspapers; estimates of newspapers’ share of advertising in 2008 and 2010; what effects would there be if the NRS survey was conducted online; and what key issues will shape the market in the future.
Respondents to the survey were broadly in agreement that red-tops will be the worst hit by declining circulations, with two respondents suggesting that it is likely that a red-top will close in the foreseeable future.
Similarly, red-tops were predicted to fare worst in the Sunday market, with mid-market Sundays also seeing circulations drop off, whilst qualities are forecast to remain relatively stable, with only a slight dip.
However, respondents did not feel that the decline in circulation was sharp and unpredictable, with one of them saying: “The current percentage decreases appear consistent in the last 5-6 years, hence the feeling that it’s a gradual decline, not a steep and unpredictable one.”
All respondents to the survey thought that national newspapers’ share of advertising within the UK advertising market would decrease steadily over the next four years, with a drop of over 2 percentage points by 2010.
The survey also revealed a lack of trust in the data provided by the NRS survey, owing to too many monthly fluctuations. However, there was general agreement that moving the NRS survey online could be beneficial, with one respondent saying: “I think it’s good that Simon Marquis has recognised a problem and is doing something about it.”
Points that respondents raised with regard to the future included the average age of readers, coupled with the difficulty of tempting a younger demographic, and the possibility of more established papers following the freesheet route in order to capitalise on the success of titles such as the Metro.
The decline in classified advertising was also commented on, with many them moving online. One respondent made the suggestion that classified ads could be given away free in order to ensure the title had a continued high readership.
Of course the online revolution loomed large in respondent’s future forecasts, with one saying: “We do not live in a world where the printed word is king; the potential younger reader simply does not have enough time or inclination to seek out a view or analysis of a top story. Rather they want short, sharp, to the point treatment supplied by other online news services.”
There is a 28 page report on the future of the press available from MediaTel INSIGHT www.mediatelinsight.co.uk/reports (free to all INSIGHT subscribers), which includes long-term trends for national newspaper circulation and readership, as well as the latest advertising revenue and circulation forecasts and an analysis of current marketplace dynamics.
