Merrill Lynch Forecasts Improving H2 For US Radio
US radio advertising revenues are set for a good second half, with June’s figures already showing an indication of a pick-up in the market. National advertising jumped by 16% in June, whilst local was flat (see US Radio Revenue Strengthens With 4% Growth In June).
The overall 4% rise in June is higher than the 2% predicted by Merrill Lynch analysts. National revenues are now showing a progressive positive trend, with a 1% rise in April followed by 4% growth in May (see US Radio Revenue Flat In May, Q3 Growth Predicted).
Merrill Lynch says this growth is largely a result of advertisers returning to the market following the conclusion of the war in Iraq, along with broader improving business fundamentals. Things are expected to improve moving into the second half of the year, with Q2 being the low point of the year.
The broker predicts that full year growth will be 2.8%, after a 2.7% rise in Q3 and a 3.3% rise in Q4.
| US Radio Advertising Growth Forecasts | ||
| 2002 | 2003F | |
| Q1 | -1.0 | 4.0 |
| Q2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| Q3 | 10.0 | 2.7 |
| Q4 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| Full Year | 6.0 | 2.8 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch, August 2003 | ||
