Myers Reduces ‘Overly Optimistic’ 2002 US Ad Revenue Forecasts
In light of US strikes on Afghanistan and the continued threat of terrorism across the States, Jack Myers has revised its US ad revenue forecasts for 2002 putting forward a best and worse case scenario. Even prior to the attacks on the US Myers forecast of -1.7% growth in total ad spending was optimistic.
Ignoring the boom figures of 1999/2000, even the ‘worst case’ scenario from Myers forecasts that overall ad revenues will surpass 1998 figures and continue in an upward trend.
| Best/Worst Case Advertising Spending Forecasts, 2002 | ||
| ÂÂ | Best Case Scenario | Worst Case Scenario |
| Newspapers | 1.0% | -5.0% |
| Broadcast Networks | -3.5% | -9.0% |
| National Spot TV | 1.0% | -9.0% |
| Broadcast Syndication | -6.0% | -12.0% |
| Local Broadcast TV | -4.0% | -10.0% |
| Radio | -4.0% | -5.0% |
| Yellow Pages | -1.0% | -2.0% |
| Magazines | -3.0% | -8.0% |
| Network Cable TV | 5.0% | -8.0% |
| Local/Regional Cable TV | 13.0% | 5.0% |
| Online | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Outdoor | -2.0% | -3.0% |
| Other | -8.0% | -15.0% |
| Total | -1.7% | -7.4% |
| Source: Jack Myers Report, 16.10.01 | ||
The hope, says Myers, is that marketers will increase their marketing budgets in order to exploit the changing needs of consumers who are continuing to buy despite adverse conditions. If this notion prevails then Myers believes that an upturn in 2002 is more likely than it may currently appear.
Should the war come to a swift and effective end then media revenues may be back on a more positive tack ahead of current expectations.